Inspector Gregory: Is there any point to which you would wish to draw my attention? Sherlock Holmes: To the curious incident of the dog in the night-time. Insepctor Gregory: The dog did nothing in the night-time. Sherlock Holmes: That was the curious incident The Adventure of The Silver Blaze, 1892 You can observe a lot by just watching. Yogi [...]
The AI trade hit some turbulence last week as concerns emerged about the growth rate of the industry. The technology sector ETF (XLK) lost 7.7% last week and is down nearly 10% since peaking on 10/6. The semiconductor industry ETF (XSD) fell 12.5% and is nearing bear market territory (-17.3%) since peaking the same day. What's more interesting, from a [...]
A Glimpse of the Future? I was reading through some blog posts this morning and ran across one titled 'The Stock Market Does Not Equal The Economy". I've heard this phrase numerous times in my career, usually the elongated version: "The stock market is not the economy and the economy is not the stock market." It is an odd thing [...]
Meta released their personal AI agent, Muse, last month, promising that it is safe, secure, and private. They say it “actually does the work” rather than just acting as a chatbot. It “helps people stay on top of things, takes tasks and projects off their plate, and turns long-term goals into action plans. Muse runs on a dedicated secure computer [...]
I know I've written about rates and bonds seemingly every week, but it's been necessary. Last week, the 10-year yield finally broke above 5%, an event I've anticipated for years, rising nearly 19 basis points to close at 5.18%. With that move, the 10-year rate is back to normal — right around the 40-year average. The low-rate regime that prevailed [...]
Come writers and critics Who prophesize with your pen And keep your eyes wide The chance won't come again And don't speak too soon For the wheel's still in spin And there's no tellin' who That it's namin' For the loser now Will be later to win For the times they are a-changin' - Bob Dylan, The Times They Are [...]
Whenever people say, 'Oh, well, the Treasury Secretary is taking a risk,' well, it's my dream. I have asymmetric information. I am the house now. So when we intervene with the Japanese yen, I have pretty good insight into what the Japanese, what the Bank of Japan is going to do, what Japanese policymakers are going to do. You can [...]
It is impossible to escape the negativity toward bonds these days. And with good reason, I suppose, since the returns from the asset class have been lousy for some time. The 7-10 year Treasury index is down 1.42% this year, which doesn't sound like much, but being down on the safest asset in your portfolio is a bit jarring. It [...]
As I learned years ago, you can take two different kinds of hikes on the trails around Jackson Hole. I can sum up my hikes with former Vice Chairman Don Kohn in two words: I survived. These steely marathon death marches revealed a side of Don I wasn't ready for. There's another kind of hike—one I associate with Chairman Ben [...]
It seems like a lot has happened over the last few weeks. At the end of July, Treasury Secretary Bessent used the exchange stabilization fund to purchase Yen by selling Euros. That intervention was intended, according to the accepted wisdom, to prevent the Japanese from selling US Treasuries to fund purchases of the Yen themselves. The Japanese are large holders [...]
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