On September 21, 2008, Goldman Sachs announced its intention to become the then-fourth largest bank holding company, bringing it under the Federal Reserve’s regulatory umbrella. The timing of the change makes perfect sense, a week after Lehman triggered an ongoing panic, but in the perspective of wider systemic arrangements it was an odd attempt at resolution. With Merrill Lynch cold-fused [...]
When logic and proportion have fallen sloppy dead And the white knight is talking backwards And the red queen's off with her head... Grace Slick, White Rabbit 'Twas brilling, and the slithy toves Did gyre and gimble in the wabe: All mimsy were the borogoves, And the mome raths ougrabe Lewis Carrol, Jabberwocky For those of a certain age [...]
After stagnating in January and March, the S&P 500 Cap-Weighted Index ((IVV)) continued its surge to new all-time highs in April. The index has been straddling the 50-day moving average for some time now. If it can’t blast through the 2120 level, look for the index to retest the 50-day moving average yet again. The S&P 500 is up 3.50% for [...]
To date this year, the European stock market has performed better than its US counterpart. The ETF tracking the MSCI EMU is up 154% more than the S&P 500 and our holding, HEDJ, the currency hedged European ETF offered by Wisdom Tree is up 495% more than the S&P 500. The out-performance has occurred in spite of [...]
There was no third consecutive quarterly liquidity event on April 15, but I think there was an observation of the same systemic crack that just didn’t, this time, go anywhere. I have been highlighting repo rates particularly during April where GC rates failed to reset as they had done after every other quarterly window dressing. This time was already notable [...]
There were a lot of references to the top-line durable goods figure, which was better at 4% in March, but surprisingly almost every piece of commentary was acquiescent to the very disappointing internals. If there was weather depression in the Q1 “slump” so far, it should have abated in March and kicked off an unmistakable rebound –that was the expectation. [...]
The theme this week has been one of killing currencies, or monetary genocide, as that seems to be reaching once-believed improbable levels of descent. While not specifically a self-contained series, the prior pieces, which are relevant to this discussion, are here, here and here. My intent so far as this angle is far more speculative, looking ahead at projecting a [...]
The purpose of trying to frame revenue and earnings as a figment of dollar calculations is, of course, to make it seem as if these are just numbers that have little meaning. The emphasis on “constant currency” terms is not just a means to alter the figures but the very meaning itself. As IBM has constantly proclaimed, yes, its revenue [...]
If there is a set of data points that should be most concerning and useful (in that regard) to policymakers they are certainly related to junk debt. You can throw away even the irregular nature of GDP and surely ignore the Establishment Survey and unemployment rate. Given that those statistics are at least captured by a greater governing dynamic (which [...]
It seems a very long way from here, but it was only December 23rd when the economy was taken as “booming.” That was the day that excited economists under direct confirmation, allegedly, that this time was different. The Commerce Department had reported Q3 GDP up to 5%, raising estimates for business investment and consumer spending. The recovery had arrived, at [...]
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