For the first time since June 2012 Japan has attained a trade surplus. It is, however, premature to interpret that as an end to the impoverishment the island has undertaken these past three years, the last two under QQE. There are various reasons for the end of the negative trade imbalance, but the most significant surround the Chinese New Year. [...]
I believe the phrase that is attaining Paul Krugman all these invitations to “consult” on economic failure is one that he has used pretty consistently for years. He says “deflationary vortex” and for a long while it was ignored as studious monetarists were busy inflating away; except that none of them, from the Fed to BoJ to the ECB, even [...]
With the PBOC’s apparent schizophrenia on display it is unsurprising that there would be another default. I don’t find any coincidence between the timing of that announcement, in Hong Kong, and the fact that the PBOC both “tightened” and “loosened” in the past few days. They have been pretty consistent about that going back to the initiation of “reform” in [...]
Yesterday brought on an exposition on the death of currency, but it was only one dimension in that process. Owing to the orientation of monetary policy, especially under QE conditions, most attention is focused outward from short to long. The irreconcilably truth, as I put it, is that destroying time value amounts to depressing financial participation. Today we are very [...]
The fact that China did something will always be treated with hyperventilation, but lately that includes an almost bi-polar nature. Last week, the PBOC branch in Shanghai made what looked to be a “tightening” gesture upon Chinese stocks, ordering commercial banks, in a memo, to check for risks in margin debt. They also banned margin on unregulated accounts and “suddenly” [...]
There is an irreconcilable tension that lies at the heart of every “extraordinary” monetary policy. It isn’t something that is talked about much, and in fact it is steadfastly avoided as if these were two distinct topics. Bringing them together amounts to “crossing the streams” (to use 1984-style metaphors) and tends to undermine the idea that in the most extreme [...]
It is becoming settled wisdom that the most dangerous aspects of any current financial contours are due almost entirely to some version of HFT or electronic trading. That is undoubtedly true, as far as it might relate to one aspect, but to claim that computers are the single biggest source, let along only source, of financial impropriety is obtuse. The [...]
The GSCI Commodity Index ((GSG)) consists primarily of Energy, but also includes Agriculture, Industrial Metals, Livestock, and Precious Metals as part of its holdings. The index broke down during the month of July on the backs of a stronger US Dollar and Saudia Arabia’s strategic decision to hold production levels. It now finds itself just over the 50-day moving average [...]
What does GE know that we don't? That was my initial reaction to the news this week that GE is exiting the finance business that has provided it a seemingly endless stream of profits over the last three decades. Well, except for that little interruption that has come to be known as the Great Recession. Back in 2008, Jeffrey Immelt [...]
Our strategic research partner is calling for the end of Phase 4 and the beginning of Phase 5. Phase 4 is called the "Countertrend Pullback." Phase 5 is called a "High Conviction Rally." Is the equity Bull about to be re-awakened? As always, please feel free to contact me with any questions or concerns. Find out about your personal risk [...]
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