Sometimes, the government will tell you a lot when it really doesn’t want to tell you anything. It’s not what they say, but what they don’t. In the case of the Treasury Department, there was a small, seemingly nondescript morsel buried down underneath the rest of its more immediately consequential next-quarter projections. While focused, quite rightly, on the scaling back [...]
45.2 Examining the Post-Covid Economic ReflationWe look through the lenses of the dollar, Treasury yields, inflation breakevens, swap spreads to see how this Post-Covid reflation compares to the three economic recoveries of the past 13 years: Green Shoots (2009-10), Global Growth (2012-14) and Globally Synchronized Growth (2016-18). ———WHO——— Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPTwitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiArt: https://davidparkins.com/ Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with [...]
Nevada is, by all accounts and accountants, in rough shape. Very rough shape. An economy overly dependent upon a single industry, tourism, in this case, is a disaster waiting to happen should anything happen to that industry. Pandemic restrictions, for instance.Nevadans cannot afford the government spending they “have” without a gaming industry attracting visitors at full throttle. Desperate, the state’s [...]
Japan is just the name of a group of large islands on the far side of the Pacific from the United States. For most people, there’s not much else more to say beyond the charm of weird, ofttimes masochistic tendencies embedded within the inscrutably fascinating Japanese gameshows. Maybe something about suicidal demographics. The financial media has done such a poor [...]
Retirement. It’s a magic word and it’s supposed to be a magic time in your life. You’ve planned for it, worked for it, anticipated it, and expected a great life that comes after it. Today, people are retiring at a rate 27% higher than 10 years ago. Much of the increase is because of unplanned, early retirement due to declining [...]
If the payroll numbers are old news because they aren’t supposed to matter anymore, what with TGA drawdowns and vaccines, then JOLTS figures one month further behind them must count for even less. Gradation does factor here, though, and that’s why it’s important to keep the current and slightly-in-arrears data in mind.What I mean is that the stimulus-frenzy narrative does [...]
Even the feds haven’t been able to keep up. Without the government having taken over student loans in the wake of 2008-09’s Great “Recession”, there’d have been almost no additional consumer credit extended during the decade since. It’s one more facet to the recovery-less recovery; like Japan, a dominant even overbearing government influence that doesn’t stimulate anything but its own [...]
There is another part to the upcoming July debt ceiling constraint. On the one hand, as noted last week, the Department of Treasury will have to draw down its checking account balance it holds at the Federal Reserve (TGA). There are, as there have always been, consequences for doing so insofar as bank reserves are concerned. These are extrapolated into [...]
45.1 Why Are US Treasury Bills in Such High Demand?There is a mainstream explanation for why US Treasury Bill rates are falling. There is also a Eurodollar / Shadow Money / Collateral System explanation. Jeff Snider reviews the two perspectives and looks ahead to where trouble may lay. ———WHO——— Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPTwitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiArt: https://davidparkins.com/ Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments [...]
First, it was 10%, then 20%, and today more than 50% of U.S. retirees pay taxes on their Social Security benefits, and the number is expected to go even higher. The cause seems to be that one government hand doesn’t know, or care, what the other government hand is doing. The rub comes because income tax brackets are adjusted for [...]
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