As depicted by Macro Research Board, the current cycle has been "abnormal." The depth of the downturn in 2008 led to deleveraging and risk aversion in the financial and household sectors. This, coupled with the sheer weight of aggregate debt, has caused "a prolonged risk on/off environment." This has "undermined investor confidence," and "slowed the transition between the policy-induced rally and growth-driven upleg" [...]
An up market would seem frustrate the most participants. Click here to sign up for our free weekly e-newsletter. For information on Alhambra Investment Partners' money management services and global portfolio approach, Douglas R. Terry, CFA is reachable at: [email protected] This material has been distributed for informational purposes only. It is the opinion of the author and should not be [...]
After trading within a range of 150 or so points during 2015, the S&P 500 Index (IVV) fell off a cliff in late summer, decisively breaking both moving averages but holding support at the 1870 level. Within the last month and a half though, it has rebounded remarkably, getting close to new all-time highs. Those gains are once again at risk [...]
The wedge pattern that was formed by the S&P 500 Index ((IVV)) finally resolved itself with a big move downward in August. The market corrected to the 1867 and retested that low in late September. Since the beginning of October, the market bounced off that level and has been on a tear. It surged all the way up to the 2116 [...]
The investing environment remains challenging. Equity valuations are high after a 6 year extraordinary bull market. Bonds have been in a bull market for 35 years and yields, though off their 2012 lows, remain at historic extremes. After a 7 year, 700% bull in oil from 2001 to 2008, it gave back 90% of gains in 6 month. Oil followed this up with a 5 year [...]
This past week, the S&P 500 Cap-Weighted Index ((IVV)) tested and then held support at the 200-day moving average (at least for now) during this remarkable rebound from its crushing meltdown earlier this year. We may once again test resistance at the previous breakdown level (2080) this coming week. The S&P 500 is up 2.68% for the year. The S&P [...]
Behavioral Finance in investing has been around for some time. The market reflects the collective opinion of investors. These opinions contain a human element and to the extent that they are completely rational is the source of much of the academic work in this field. Alan Greenspan’s use of the term irrational exuberance is a memorable allusion to the existence [...]
After trading within a range of 150 or so points during 2015, the S&P 500 Index (IVV) fell off a cliff in late summer, decisively breaking the 50-week moving average but holding support at the 1870 level. Within the last month it has rebounded decisively though, back up to resistance at the breakdown point at the 2080 level. New highs [...]
The US Central Bank has a dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices. Originally, this meant the Central Bank would help to smooth the business cycles that tend to occur in an economy. When an output gap emerged, they would lower the interest rate. This would not only lower the debt burden on the economy but would lower the [...]
Based on their in depth research and access to global economic data, our Strategic Macroeconomic Research Partner recommends the following portfolio positioning. Asset Allocation Regional Exposures Sector Exposures Fixed Income Click here to sign up for our free weekly e-newsletter. For information on Alhambra Investment Partners' money management services and global [...]
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