Forget a gradual decoupling from China. In October, the Biden administration announced new export controls and rules that effectively decapitate China’s semiconductor industry. The ramifications go beyond semiconductors to everything touched by them, including potentially ending nearly all of China’s high-tech aspirations. U.S. companies are now banned from exporting advanced chips to China without special exemptions. But the rules go [...]
The Cleanest Dirty Shirt It’s easy to overestimate the problems the United States faces while underestimating its strengths. The challenges are certainly significant. Politics have seldom been so divisive. The government is running an annual deficit of over a trillion dollars, with a total debt many times that. Inflation has spiked. The Fed has been hiking interest rates at a [...]
In February of 2020, the S&P 500 made a new all-time high of nearly 3,400 points. Then the selloff began that would see an intraday low below 2,200 points. That is a 35 percent loss. But the market has since rebounded recovering to 2,846 points as I write this. This represents an almost 30 percent gain from the low and [...]
A Prognosis for U.S. Stocks The future for U.S. stocks over the next decade appears ominous, regardless of the impact of the Coronavirus. Why? Because valuations matter. And stocks at the end of February were priced for perfection. Any significant negative development was poised to drive them lower. The COVID-19 Virus that shut down the U.S. economy has certainly qualified. [...]
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