Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy

A TIC Trio of More Serious Deflation Potential: Asset Rebound, Banks Can’t Borrow T-bills From Foreigners, And The China Cringe Which Goes Along

By |2021-08-18T20:41:43-04:00August 18th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Treasury Department’s TIC update for the month of June 2021 was, well, interesting. Not in a good way, either (post-2014, is it ever actually good?) There are just too many nuggets to digest in one sitting, so here I’ll merely go over three major developments: an update to the May 2021 big dollar warning; a big, nasty wince given [...]

The Exceptionally Helpful European Inflation Control Group

By |2021-08-18T17:15:38-04:00August 18th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Europe’s statistical agency Eurostat reported today that its preliminary inflation estimates released earlier for the month of July 2021 had come out correct. Those first guesses had put the year-over-year change in the overall HICP at 2.2%, and its core rate one of the lowest at 0.7%. With more completed survey data and more time to recheck the statistics, confirming [...]

‘Unexpected’ Lumbering Prices

By |2021-08-17T19:18:25-04:00August 17th, 2021|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Inflation is monetary, meaning that “real” inflation – a broad-based and sustained accelerating trend in consumer prices – is a part of the not-real financial realm. If reckless authorities print too much money, then the solution, for anyone rationally seeking protection, is to rotate out of the financial and into the real. The logic is unassailable: too much money, high [...]

Taking Inventory of Real Economy Inflation Potential

By |2021-08-17T17:11:40-04:00August 17th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

A tale of two retail industries. In the one, the well-known chip problem holding back what is already a monstrously robust (if artificial) sales environment. Automobile dealer lots are nearing empty and carmakers are unable (perhaps unwilling, too?) to produce near sufficient volumes to keep up let alone restock.This view of the situation, though, has clouded perspectives particularly as they [...]

Taper *Without* Tantrum

By |2021-08-16T19:46:53-04:00August 16th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Whomever actually coined the term “taper”, using it in the context of Federal Reserve QE for the first time, it wasn’t actually Ben Bernanke. On May 22, 2013, the central bank’s Chairman sat in front of Congressman Kevin Brady and used the phrase “step down in our pace of purchases.” No good, at least from the perspective of a media-driven [...]

China’s Field of (broken inflationary) Dreams

By |2021-08-16T17:12:26-04:00August 16th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

You don’t hear about China’s “ghost cities” nearly as much anymore. Around 2012, thereabouts, suddenly social and regular medias alike were alive with pics of all sorts of empty buildings all around the vast urban Chinese landscapes. Unlike America’s Rust Belt, these spectral landmarks were brand new; built recently yet eerily unoccupied. Claimed to be a symbol of burgeoning asset [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Happy Anniversary!

By |2021-08-16T07:35:56-04:00August 15th, 2021|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

Today is the 50th anniversary of the "Nixon shock", the day President Richard Nixon closed the gold window and ended the post-WWII Bretton Woods currency agreement. That agreement, largely a product of John Maynard Keynes, pegged the dollar to gold and most other currencies to the dollar. It wasn't a true gold standard as only other countries that were party [...]

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 94, Part 3: No Income, No Inflation

By |2021-08-13T19:45:16-04:00August 13th, 2021|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

94.3 American's Income MUCH LESS than Assumed ———Ep 94.3 Summary———"This might be one of the biggest downward revisions I have ever observed," says Jeff Snider. The benchmark revision to Real Personal Income ERASED billions of dollars in presumed earnings from US workers since 2015, and especially in 2020 to 2021. "Truly stunning." ———See It——— Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPTwitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiAlhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royEmil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisLArt: https://davidparkins.com/ ———Hear It——— Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPnApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr [...]

Germans Got Global

By |2021-08-13T19:41:02-04:00August 13th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It has taken nearly two years for Germany’s ZEW to finally close its gap. The index for sentiment had popped all the way back in September 2019 buoyed by the ECB restarting QE; these peculiar German businesspersons who make up this particular survey panel do love their “stimulus” announcements no matter how many times the actual policy fails to stimulate [...]

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