The 30-year US Treasury bond yield dipped below 2% today for the first time since early February. The unsurprising nasty “surprise” in the ISM combined with more concerning data especially surrounding China released over the long American holiday weekend have added more weight to fears the global economy has reached the limits of reopening. If we’ve already seen its best [...]
Completing the monthly cycle, the ISM released its estimates for non-manufacturing in the US during the month of June 2021. The headline index dropped nearly four points, more than expected. From 64.0 in May, at 60.1 while still quite high it’s the implication of being the lowest in four months which got so much attention. Consistent with IHS Markit’s estimates [...]
Payrolls for the month of June were a mixed bag, in that the payroll data was better than expected at the same time nothing else was. After a couple months of ho-hum gains for the Establishment Survey, government hiring (mostly) boosted the latest monthly figure to +853,000. This brings the 6-month average up to +543,000, which is either really good [...]
Does anyone remember the SLR “cliff?” Of course you don’t, because in the end it didn’t seem to make any difference. For a few weeks, it was kind of ubiquitous if only in the sense that it was another one of those deep plumbing issues no one seems able to understand (forcing all the “experts” to run to Investopedia in [...]
84.2 Quantitative Easing: A False God———Ep 84.2 Summary———How is it possible 14 years of data shows the Federal Reserve FLAILING ABOUT trying to raise or lower bond yields with MASSIVE purchases of securities via quantitative easing? Because they were 'massive'. The CENTRAL BANK IS NOT CENTRAL to money. The bond market is. ———See It——— Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPTwitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiAlhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royEmil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisLArt: https://davidparkins.com/ ———Hear It——— Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPnApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr [...]
China’s Cultural Revolution itself was, after all, an attempt to reconcile against factions threatening from within the ailing country’s rudderless position of that time. Red Guards were formed especially from young students who were as equally zealous ideologues as well as frightened being exposed and left on the wrong side of unfolding history.It's always students in these Communist “peasant” uprisings [...]
84.1 Fed Reverse Repo Record - Why the Big Deal?!———Ep 84.1 Summary———After the Federal Reserve raised the return on one of its bank programs, a record $756 billion flowed into the central bank’s reverse repo facility. Jerome Powel said, "We're not concerned." He should be. Like the Fed should've been in 2017 when something similar happened. A warning. Again. Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPTwitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiAlhambra [...]
Back at the end of May, Germany’s statistical accounting agency (deStatis) added another one to the inflationary inferno raging across the mainstream media. According to its flash calculations, German consumer prices last month had increased by the fastest rate in 13 years. Even using the European “harmonized” methodology (Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, or HICP), inflation had reached 2.4% year-over-year [...]
Following the same recent pattern as the BLS and its CPI, the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s (BEA) PCE Deflator ran up hotter in May 2021 than its already high increase during April. The latter’s headline consumer basket rose 3.91% year-over-year, its fastest pace since August 2008. The core rate, which excludes food and energy prices, accelerated to 3.39% from 3.11%, [...]
82.3 The Federal Reserve is NOT a Central Bank Pt. 3———Ep 82.3 Summary———Central banks inject liquidity into money markets to PREVENT a crisis. Let us review the last 14 years: Global Financial Crisis I (2008), European Sovereign Debt Crisis (2011), Chinese Reserve Crisis (2015), Global Financial Crisis II (2020). Not too good. Do they know what they're doing? ———See It———– [...]
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