The Empire State Manufacturing Survey showed declining activity in December after a positive November. It is also still showing declining future orders. Services in NY region also showing declining activity but also some optimism for the beginning of 2024. Disclaimer: This information is presented for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation [...]
This was a really good number. It was partially a rebound from October. Non-store retailers were a big area of strength. I do think some holiday sales were pulled forward. Regardless, December is an easy comp, so next month's release should again be fine. Year over year sales grew 4.1%. Consumer strength continues. Disclaimer: This information is presented for informational [...]
Strong employment translating to consumption continues to be the biggest positive contributor to GDP in Q4. Initial claims continue to signal all good for the economy. 202,000 was the 4th best week of the year. The 4-week moving average is heading lower. Continuing claims reversed the positive print from last month. The trend higher is slowing. Disclaimer: This information is [...]
PPI Goods = -1.5% PPI Services = 2.1% PPI FD = .9% PPI translation to the consumer: PPI FD Personal Consumption = 1.04% PPI FD Personal Consumption less Food and Energy = 2.2% PPI FD Personal Consumption less Food, Energy and Trade Services = 2.9% PPI FD Personal Consumption less Food, Energy and Distributive Services = 3.4% We continue to [...]
Last month the Federal Government spent $589B and ran a $314B deficit. To pay for the $314B they didn't have, they said they borrowed $261B from the public and drained their savings account by $73B. That doesn't quite add up but that doesn't surprise anyone. What's $34B between friends? When the Fed's savings account gets low, they have to come [...]
The headline index ticked down .1 to 90.6. This is the 23rd consecutive month of sentiment below the 50 year average of 98. The index surveys members of the National Federation of Independent Businesses and reports net number. When asked if the economy will improve, a net 42% of members surveyed said No. If no one answers "I don't know," [...]
Headline CPI came in at 3.12% in November, that's .11% lower than October. From September to October the headline dropped .46%. For the year, we've averaged a monthly drop of .29%. So the pace of disinflation is slowing. Additionally, YOY changes in prices are still higher than June, so we've made no progress in the 2nd half of the year. [...]
Initial claims were up 1,000 to 220,000 and continue to not be a concern. Continuing claims on the week dropped below the 4-week moving average which was good to see. Challenger reported 45515 job cuts in November. That's up from 36,836 last month but down from 76,835 las November. To date in 2023, there have been 686,860 announced cuts. We [...]
The Nowcast for 4th quarter GDP is up .1% to 1.3% growth with the addition of this week's data. Auto sales and manufacturing orders were the main reports driving this slight uptick. The forecasts were raised for personal consumption expenditures as well as business equipment purchases. Disclaimer: This information is presented for informational purposes only and does not constitute an [...]
Private companies added 103,000 workers to payrolls in November. This disappointed as consensus was expecting 123,000 additions. Also, the October number was revised down by 7,000 jobs erasing some of the strength off September's 32 month low in hiring of 89,000. On an annual basis employment is growing 2.035% and continues to slow from the hiring surge of 2021 and [...]
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