Following the explicit path of orthodox monetary and economic theory delves into something very much like Lewis Carroll’s monstrous rabbit hole he devised for Alice all the way back in 1865. Like the story’s Wonderland, the other side of the hole leads to some version of nonsense that seems to project, in the book’s case, the reader’s own senses. In [...]
US trade statistics for February improved in both exports and imports, but there are questions as to the reason for the reverse and whether it is actually meaningful. After abysmal performance in every segment and category in January, there was some give back in February including positive numbers in some places. That suggests that January’s trade activity might have been [...]
The basis for the ongoing economic paradigm shift that seems to be manifesting in a slow, lingering slowdown (that is now more than year into contraction) in the US and global economies can be nothing but the withdrawal of banks from the necessities of the credit-based reserve currency. So far, the updated bank reports for Q4 last year continue the [...]
While continuing to tout an economic recovery that is being missed by far too many, the government and economists say one thing and then move toward the other. The unemployment rate claims one economic version that is talked about openly, but then there are “little things” that various official capacities seek to carry out suggesting they realize full well the [...]
In August 1855, Abraham Lincoln wrote a letter to his good friend Joshua Speed who had lived in Springfield but had since returned to his childhood home in Kentucky. The Missouri Compromise of 1820 had recently been overturned in Congress by the Kansas-Nebraska Act and the nation was somewhat enthralled by the “know nothings” and their quasi-party. Lincoln had been [...]
Economic Reports Scorecard The economic reports since the last update present a dichotomy. While there has been an improvement in the surprises - more better than expected reports - the overall tone of the reports has been fairly negative. Part of the explanation for that is the plethora of regional Fed reports over the last two weeks, almost all of [...]
Everything I wrote in my last post on China’s PMI’s could be rewritten and reworded for the ISM version of American industry. The index rebounded to above 50 in March for the first time since last August. As noted with the Chinese PMI’s, that doesn’t necessarily mean that growth has returned only that March wasn’t likely as bad as January [...]
Stimulus always works because every uptick and improvement is attributed to it no matter how small and ultimately inconsequential. That has been the history of the past four years now, as the slowdown has not come at a steady pace. Nothing goes in a straight line except mainstream extrapolations of every positive variation. And when whatever indication is lower and [...]
According to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, layoffs in the US were up 32% in March 2016 over March 2015. Compared to both January and February this year, March was somewhat better but overall for Q1 published layoffs were also 32% more on a year-over-year basis. It wasn’t a very good quarter. Some of that is expected given the death of [...]
It is quarter end, so illiquidity irregularity is to be expected except that it isn’t irregular really. Eurodollar futures have been heavily bid for three days in a row now, leaving four consecutive up days for the first time since the liquidations. And because I am a sucker for fractal behavior, repo markets proved that quarter end is still what [...]
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