All advanced series released by the Census Bureau corroborate the same Q4 weakness seen in the advanced durable goods number from last week. GDPNow and almost all of the data is indicating a slow down from a strong Q3. Advanced data for wholesale and retail inventories and the trade deficit in goods all point to a slight slowing in GDP [...]
It's a mountainous monetary problem. “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.” -- Milton Friedman This is a real time case study. Color me skeptical about a "soft landing." At the very least , there's likely to be some bumps. Disclaimer: This information is presented for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, or [...]
What would you think if I told you the price of an existing house and a new house in this country were negatively correlated? (Case/Shiller HPI only measures resale). That sounds impossible and I would argue to my grave that it is certainly impossible over the long term. But... What happens when your house appreciates significantly in a short [...]
Here are some of the headline sentiments I am seeing: consumer confidence rises consumer confidence rebounds consumer confidence rises for the first time in 4 months consumer is optimistic Let's take this with a grain of salt. Last months initial number was 102.6. This month's number is 102.0. Last months print of 102.6 was revised down to 99.1. Therefore we [...]
Not a good report: This continues the theme of a strong Q3 and weaker Q4 and it disappointed relative to consensus. New orders were showing some strength and divergence from general activity, but plunged back in line with the weak current environment. Disclaimer: This information is presented for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to [...]
New home sales have been in an uptrend for the past 15 months. That trend is slowing and has perhaps come to an end. In October, homes sold at a rate of 679,000 units per year or just above the long term average of 656,000 units. The median price continues to come down. Prices dropped just over 3% from September [...]
We have a lot to be thankful for here in the US of A. It is sometimes hard to remember that while being constantly bombarded by negative news, about the economy and the country more generally. I don't like to comment about politics - I have to watch my blood pressure these days - so I'll stick to economics and [...]
Chicago Fed Activities Index An expected drop in Oct versus strong Sept. We are near concerning levels which would be below -.5. Fuel Prices Continuing down. Existing Home Sales Sales are down again and inventory is up. This is all about affordability. Many home owners are locked into their home because of the large difference between their existing mortgage and [...]
"After a pause in September, the LEI resumed signaling recession in October." LEI signaling a shallow recession. The index is down 3.3% in the last 3 months and -.8% in October. I hate to compare cycles, but the machine does and there are certainly similarities. The similarities became apparent with the release of CPI last week. In June of 2006 [...]
Stocks, REITs, and bonds all rallied last week on the back of what was interpreted as good news on inflation. The CPI report was better than expected, the overall level flat from September to October. Core inflation, less food and energy, was also better than expected at up 0.2%. Producer prices, reported the day after CPI were even better, coming [...]
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