There is no schadenfreude at times like these, no time to dance on anyone’s grave. Victory laps are a luxury that only central bankers take – always prematurely. The world already coming apart because of GFC1, what comes next with GFC2 and then whatever follows it? Another “bond king” has thrown in the towel. Franklin Templeton’s candidate for the title [...]
Two weeks ago, OPEC+ and the US came to a deal to cut crude oil production. President Trump hailed the deal, saying it would save “hundreds of thousands” of oil patch jobs. The Texas Railroad Commission meets today to “consider” a cut in oil production in the Lone Star state. Meanwhile, the market has made all this high-level negotiating irrelevant, [...]
What set me off down the rabbit hole trying to chase modern money’s proliferation of products originally was the distinct lack of curiosity on the subject. This was the nineties, after all, where economic growth grew on trees. Reportedly. Why on Earth would anyone purposefully go looking for the tiniest cracks in the dam?My very first day on the job, [...]
It seemed like an odd, counterintuitive market reaction to what was total chaos. First the news of Lehman Brothers followed closely by AIG, panic gripped every corner of the global marketplace. Toward late September 2008, the stock market would meltdown (the main part of GFC1 that most people associate with the term) in a wave of liquidations due to a [...]
For the second time this year, the PBOC has today affirmed Chinese banks are offering a lower benchmark loan rate. The Loan Prime Rate was reformed last August just in time for the monetary authorities in China to make it seem like they are being removed from the decisions. And in time for rate cuts to begin, too. What is [...]
The debate over the shape of the recovery, "V" or "L", which might emerge following the dislocation and global contraction. What clues can we find? 1. Domestic Data clues (The Two Easiest Dots Anyone Will Ever Have To Connect) "Deprive any animal of oxygen and watch how it doesn’t move very fast." How the labor force changed [...]
On March 2, the Bank of Japan leapt into the stock market, Haruhiko Kuroda burnishing his Superman cape as he flew in to rescue the Nikkei. Purchasing a record amount of ETF’s that day, shares in Tokyo surged. It was a clear message, or so everyone thought. Don’t fight the Fed nor the Bank of Japan, not when they can [...]
Hold all the congratulations. Jay Powell is, with a huge assist from the financial media, trying to pre-empt what comes next by taking a premature victory lap. The Fed isn’t just your central bank it is your friend. The amount of pure propaganda being put out lately is understandable if still disgusting. March was a good month to include [...]
An internal combustion engine that is leaking oil presents a difficult dilemma. In most cases, the leak itself is obscured if not completely hidden. You can only tell that there’s a problem because of secondary signs and observations.If you find dark stains underneath your car, for example, or if your engine smells of thick, bitter unpleasantness, you’d be wise to [...]
With volatility in the stock market ebbing somewhat or at least going in a more comfortable direction – 1000 point up-days feel a lot better than 1000 point down-days – it seems a good time to start pondering the long-term implications of the virus and shutdown. All of us have been so focused on the short term – is this [...]
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