Bonds

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 13: Now What?

By |2020-06-15T13:00:42-04:00June 15th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

iTunes: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mY Google: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48M Castro: https://bit.ly/30DMYza Stitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GB Overcast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLa Pocketcast: https://pca.st/encarkdt Alhambra-tube: https://youtu.be/a3_txb_PhrM Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP Twitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowski Art: https://davidparkins.com/   [Emil's Summary] American books and films published in 1925 will be entering the public domain next year. Included among them will be The Great Gatsby by F. Scott Fitzgerald. Upon its release the book was met with popular indifference. And [...]

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Swap Me Still

By |2020-06-12T16:55:09-04:00June 12th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In its earliest years, the Discount Window wasn’t something to be avoided at all costs, it was nearly the whole point. In order to supply largely seasonal liquidity, the word “discount” meant banks could show up at one of the local 12 Fed branches and post collateral for an increase in their reserve balance. No one would be stuck holding [...]

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We Have Reached The Silly Phase of the Bull Market

By |2020-06-11T08:04:42-04:00June 11th, 2020|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

Have we entered a new bull market? Was the 35% pullback in the S&P 500 in March the fastest bear market in history? Or is this just a continuation of the bull market that started in 2009, interrupted by a rather large correction? Bull markets and bear markets are about behavior, about the human emotions of fear and greed. While [...]

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A Second Against Consumer Credit And Interest ‘Stimulus’

By |2020-06-08T16:04:37-04:00June 8th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Credit card use entails a degree of risk appreciated at the most basic level. Americans had certainly become more comfortable with debt in all its forms over the many decades since the Great Depression, but the regular employment of revolving credit was perhaps the apex of this transformation. Does any commercial package on TV today not include one or more [...]

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Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 12: Mailbag

By |2020-06-08T12:08:00-04:00June 8th, 2020|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

iTunes: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mY Google: https://shorturl.at/fpsEJ Alhambra-tube: https://youtu.be/9xDka3RtxEk Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP Twitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowski Art: https://davidparkins.com/   [Emil's Summary] Millennials may not know this, but many centuries ago mail came by bag not by vibration nor beep. Legendary figures took on the mantle of "Mail Carrier!" including: founding father Benjamin Franklin, Wells Fargo cowboys of the Pony Express, and nice guy Mr. McFeely from Mr. [...]

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From QE to Eternity: The Backdoor Yield Caps

By |2020-06-03T18:14:49-04:00June 3rd, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

So, you’re convinced that low rates are powerful stimulus. You believe, like any good standing Economist, that reduced interest costs can only lead to more credit across-the-board. That with more credit will emerge more economic activity and, better, activity of the inflationary variety. A recovery, in other words. Ceteris paribus. What happens, however, if you also believe you’ve been responsible [...]

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Survivor’s Euphoria

By |2020-06-03T13:16:31-04:00June 3rd, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s called survivor’s or survival euphoria. Having just gone through a traumatically dangerous experience, and lived, a person might naturally become euphoric for it. Not uncommon in combat situations, your body marshals all its resources including many physiological responses and counteractions. When it’s all over, there’s evolution working overtime in your brain rewarding these survival instincts.And it can be a [...]

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OMG The 30s!!!

By |2020-06-02T18:40:29-04:00June 2nd, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I suppose you can admire their zeal and persistence, but then again what is a zealot without his or her zeal? The desperation by which to rescue the Fed’s money printing exercise is palpable. Stocks, sure, bonds, however, aren’t making it easy. Especially inflation expectations which are crucial to Jay Powell’s fairy tale.That whole flood. Over the last several days, [...]

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What Powell’s Not Telling You; Half of Jobs Already Lost May Not Be Coming Back Anytime Soon

By |2020-06-02T18:46:57-04:00June 2nd, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

Time may not heal all wounds, after all. One thing it does do is clarify. There was a time not all that long ago when 20 million sounded absolutely enormous. How quaint today. At the end of March, initial jobless claims in the US were surpassing that unthinkable level leaving everyone to hope it wouldn’t get much worse. Having blown [...]

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We Shouldn’t Have To Be Busting The Flood Myth For A Second Time, And Now We’re Really Going To Pay Prices

By |2020-05-29T19:18:37-04:00May 29th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s now more than two months out from GFC2 and more importantly the Fed’s response to it. Why is Jay Powell’s reaction more important? Simple. Because it outlines what happens next. Had the FOMC been anywhere close to successful in anything other than convincing the media, GFC2 might’ve been a singular instance of disruption related to the non-economic shock of [...]

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