Weekly Market Pulse (VIDEO)
Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun talks about whether inflation has peaked, the JOLTS report, new company formations, consumer sentiment, and what investors should do to wrap up 2021.
Eurodollar University Episode 175, Part 3: Trick Question, Stock or Flow When It Comes to QE?
175.3 Trick Question: How Much QE Will Move the Bond Market———Ep 175.3 Summary———Since 2008 the pace of purchases, sales - and everything in between - has not affected the price of bond yields. Indeed, bond yields seem to go the opposite way of they're 'supposed' to act. But what about the stock of purchases? Is there a total, that once [...]
Omicron Fears Fading, CPI Huge-r Still, Fed Hinting At Accelerated Taper, And Yet Euro$ Inversion (and other things) Is Still Here
The bond market is imploding, right? It has to be going by everything you hear. Did you know that the last two 30-year bond auctions had gone “awry”, as one mainstream news outlet put it? Another "media" shop declared them “catastrophic.”The second of those long bond sales was conducted just yesterday afternoon, right in time to run into the buzzsaw [...]
The Higher The CPI, The Less For Inflation
It hurts, so people want to know what to blame. Who should they punish for inflicting their pain? Enter human bias and the emotional processing of preconceived conclusions, “inflation” is no longer a topic which can be discussed rationally. A statistical weapon instead to be wielded attempting to settle other debates.Joe Biden did it. No, this is a Biden Boom, [...]
Eurodollar University Episode 175, Part 2: Euro$ Curve Inverts, So We Have To Talk *More* About It
175.2 RED ALERT: Eurodollar Futures Curve Inverts Pt. 2———Ep 175.2 Summary———When the US Treasury yield curve inverts it's a recession warning for the United States. What about when the Eurodollar futures curve inverts? That's a warning too; a monetary Red Alert for the entire world economy. On December 1st the Eurodollar curve inverted. Welcome to Hades. ———Ep 175.2 Topics——— 00:00 [...]
Sure, Tomorrow the CPI But Future CPI’s In Today’s Inventory?
Empty shelves at the grocery store are an easy way to get likes and clicks. The highest CPI in decades, like there almost certainly will be at tomorrow’s release, relatedly a hot news topic. On the contrary, hardly anyone will publish therefore notice that wholesale inventories during October 2021 increased by the largest monthly amount on record.It just doesn’t fit [...]
A Global JOLT(s) In July
The Bureau Labor Statistics reported today another huge month for Job Openings (JO). According to their methodology (which I still believe is flawed, but that’s not our focus this time), the level for October 2021 (JOLTS updates are for one month further back than payrolls) was a blistering 11.03 million. It wasn’t a record high, though, as that was set [...]
Eurodollar University Episode 175, Part 1: Euro$ Curve Inverts, So We Have To Talk About It
175.1 RED ALERT: Eurodollar Futures Curve Inverts Pt. 1 ———Ep 175.1 Summary———You've heard that when the US Treasury yield curve inverts it is a recession warning for the United States. What about when the Eurodollar futures curve inverts? That is a warning too. A monetary red alert for the entire world economy. On December 1st the Eurodollar curve inverted. ———Ep [...]
The Productive Use Of Awful Q3 Productivity Estimates Highlights Even More ‘Growth Scare’ Potential
What was it that old Iowa cornfield movie said? If you build it, he will come. Well, this isn’t quite that, rather something more along the lines of: if you reopen it, some will come back to work. Not nearly as snappy, far less likely to sell anyone movie tickets, yet this other tagline might contribute much to our understanding [...]
Global Trade Case(s) Behind Global ‘Growth Scare’
The US Census Bureau today reported that US imports of goods and services reached a record monthly high of $290.7 billion in October 2021. Just goods alone, the figure was $241.1 billion, which was 11% greater than the previous peak set way back in October 2018. With (questionable) media accounts continuing to highlight West Coast port traffic, there may not [...]
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