Valentine’s Day, and no one would love the US dollar. There was, instead, quite a lot of disdain for it fueling the usual loud voices who continue to hate it and predict its imminent demise year after year. This particularly lovely day in February 2018 seemed to have added more to the downside cheerleading; the US PPI came in red [...]
Is it delta COVID? Or the widely reported labor shortage? Something has created a soft patch in the presumed indestructible US economy still hopped up on Uncle Sam’s deposits made earlier in the year. And yet, there’s a nagging feeling over how this time, like all previous times, just might be too good to be true, too. To start with, [...]
One reason why I still believe the US most likely would have entered a recession at some point in 2020 even without COVID wasn’t just the yield curve inversion that popped up several months before then. In August of 2019, the small part of the Treasury curve most people pay attention to (2s10s) did send out that dreaded signal, suggesting [...]
Central banks and their staffs have long been accused of trying to hide inflation. This allegation had been a staple of their critics, those charging reckless monetary policies for creating “too much” money that had allegedly been causing price imbalances all over the financial map. The most famous example the Federal Reserve discontinuing M3 early in 2006 – just as [...]
Barely more than two weeks. That’s all was needed for the headlines to scream “bloodbath”, “end of the bull market”, and the always popular BOND ROUT!!! The 10-year Treasury yield had bottomed out in August and by mid-September 2019 this key benchmark rate screamed upward by 43 bps in just seven sessions. Yes, seven. To think, the financial media has [...]
Alhambra CEO discusses Evergrande, the big jump in 10-year Treasury yields last week, the US Dollar trend, and what to look for if investing right now.
US stocks sold off last Monday due to fears over the potential - likely - failure of China Evergrande, a real estate developer that has suddenly discovered the perils of leverage. Well, that and the perils of being in an industry not currently favored by Xi Jinping. He has declared that houses are for living in, not speculating on, and [...]
100.3 Why Inflation is OVERHYPED: US Import Prices ———Ep 100.3 Summary———Import and export prices are elevated in the US, but decelerating. They're high because of demand surges, supply shocks and logistics snarls - all TRANSITORY factors. Import/export prices ARE NOT elevated because of permanent, pervasive central bank or government inflationary action. ———See It——— Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPTwitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiAlhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royEmil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisLArt: https://davidparkins.com/ ———Hear It——— Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPnApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr ———Ep [...]
It gets even more interesting in the bill market, not that anything here has been unexpected. And since this is the same week as Evergrande, still no hint of spillover and tightening, at least not beyond what has become typical.That means mostly on the supply side. Treasury Secretary Yellen is losing breathing room fast, meaning she’s forced to dig further [...]
If you're fortunate to be able to do this long enough, you’re absolutely assured to get caught with your pants down and almost certainly more than once. In the short run, it’s all a crapshoot anyway. Markets fluctuate and never, ever go in a straight line. And just when you claim to be right on top, they yank the rug [...]
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