It never fails when you issue a stark liquidity warning that in the day right after almost everything enjoys a nice rebound: stocks were up, including REM slightly, while even copper was bid almost $0.10 higher. There is, in all seriousness, no account for timing which is beyond any attempts here. In describing liquidity what we are taking into account [...]
Concurrent to more survey-based indications of a US manufacturing slowdown, economists have been quick to blame overseas problems such that it leaves a “strong” US economy as a baseline. On the other side of that equation, China’s manufacturing likewise is rapidly declining but somehow with the same point of blame. Both Chinese PMI’s were decidedly weak, with the private version [...]
The ISM Manufacturing PMI was “unexpectedly” weak yet again in September. Continuing the theme spelled out by the regional manufacturing surveys (the Fed’s and the Chicago BBI), economic momentum has clearly stalled right where the “dollar” said it would. The pattern is blindingly obvious, with a huge slowdown to start the year (coincident to the first “dollar” disruptions including crude [...]
While the slide in US manufacturing is being interpreted far differently as nothing to worry about, overseas the recessionary implications are forthrightly described. The contradiction is amazing simply because the same pattern is given such different interpretation even where they are closely synchronized and both given amorphous “global” growth connotations. In Japan, contraction in industry due to “global growth” is [...]
The last few pieces of data for Q3 more than suggest the US economy faltered in August/September. That trend would be alarming on its own had it occurred in a financial vacuum (as if ceteris paribus actually existed), but following along against the “dollar” is especially so. There was the initial, large decline in early 2015 that “unexpectedly” shocked economists [...]
Before embarking on the great unknown of Q4 2015, it makes sense to try to gain a little more clarity about Q3 2015. Specifically, the “dollar” run that blasted through China and opened the prospects for both an end to Fed/Yellen faithfulness and increasing uncertainty about the true nature of economy and finance globally began around July 6; a day [...]
The behavior of mortgage REIT’s lately embody a great deal of confusion about what they actually are and what that really represents. The first aspect to understand is that they are not participants in actual real estate, rather more closely aligned as a specialty financial firm akin to a non-registered bank. They make money as banks do (or supposedly they [...]
On this side of the “dollar” world, credit markets have all but written Janet Yellen into irrelevance. Despite her pleas (because of?) last week, there isn’t any part of money dealing or fixed income that is taking her “certainty” about recovery and “inflation” as even a partial setting. So lost is the FOMC, that everywhere you turn these markets are [...]
And so it goes, back to the Asian “dollar” again. The reverberations back and forth are nothing if not remarkable, revealing, I believe, some very real divisions between the general and “traditional” eurodollar and the new(ish) Asian “dollar.” Last week, it was the eurodollar out front while China and Hong Kong were seemingly enjoying the relief. This week started with [...]
While central banks would prefer to isolate oil prices as if in their own world with nothing at all to do with finance and economy more generally, it is oil prices that continue the disappointment connecting the “dollar” to the growing market (and therefore economic) wreck. Front month and spot crude prices had bounced around more favorably since the August [...]
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