And This Is Where It Gets Interesting… As first quarter earnings season ends, we find ourselves in the same position as we have the last couple of years. Yet another quarter completed with a good portion of the companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 index successfully beating analysts’ consensus earnings estimates – significantly reduced estimates. According to S&P Capital [...]
Part 1 is here, the history of defining systemic operation since 1907. The quest over equality or the “right” to impose optimal outcomes is one that cannot go backward. The inevitable failures lead no duty to re-assess overall, but only the means by which the results are to be commanded. That was the essence of Triffin’s Paradox, which was only [...]
Value as a foundation seems almost too literal to be an economic or financial concept, but it is perhaps the bedrock association that makes the economic system. We are used to aspects like profits and money, even inflation, but those are all symptoms of the ever-changing world surrounding value. Karl Marx understood very well how deeply embedded value was even [...]
For the month of June 2014, Chinese industrial production rose to 9.2%, which was the highest rate of 2014 to that point. As with the US (as if the US and Chinese economies are related), the Chinese economy in early 2014 seemed to be suffering a bit of a slow patch though there wasn’t the Polar Vortex to divide opinion. [...]
I honestly don’t know where to begin: U.S. retail sales surged in May as households boosted purchases of automobiles and a range of other goods even as they paid a bit more for gasoline, the latest sign economic growth is finally gathering steam. The Commerce Department said on Thursday retail sales increased 1.2 percent last month after an upwardly [...]
With every piece of “unexpected” weak data from China, the calls for more “stimulus” grow louder and more desperate. And still the PBOC sits on the sidelines with only minor adjustments. The latest of those has been what amounts to a muni swap, with banks eligible to pledge municipal government debt as collateral in repurchase operations, SLF’s, MLF’s and even [...]
So far this year, there has been a divergence in the housing statistics about the state of real estate markets in the US. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) estimates that existing home sales (resales) have lagged, stagnated and even faltered all the while the Census Bureau’s figures on new home sales surged. The latter moved to seven-year highs (which [...]
The latest updates for the JOLTS showed that job openings in April surged to a new series high. Jumping by 267k (seasonally adjusted), the trend in job openings is being used as confirmation that there must be some robust underlying trend in overall payrolls despite the ubiquitous slump everywhere else. In other words, this is another series from the BLS [...]
This is one of those months where you wonder what the seasonal adjustments are doing. Wholesale sales ended their three-quarter year contraction streak by rising in April, but only in the adjusted series. Because sales moved up faster than inventories there, the inventory-to-sales ratios declined somewhat off their dramatic March peak. While that sounds great, the level of wholesale sales [...]
The Agence France Trésor of the French government reported on May 7 that its bond auction of Obligations Assimilables du Trésor (OAT) across three maturities was lightly subscribed. That wasn’t their assessment, of course, as the government simply reports the figures and the credit market makes value judgments. The October 2023’s were bid-to-cover of only 1.58; the May 2025’s were [...]
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