94.3 American’s Income MUCH LESS than Assumed

———Ep 94.3 Summary———
“This might be one of the biggest downward revisions I have ever observed,” says Jeff Snider. The benchmark revision to Real Personal Income ERASED billions of dollars in presumed earnings from US workers since 2015, and especially in 2020 to 2021. “Truly stunning.”

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Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP
Twitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowski
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Emil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL
Art: https://davidparkins.com/

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———Ep 94.3 Topics———

00:00 Show Intro: Americans earned less income between 2015-21 than previously reported.
00:14 Show Sponsor: Social Media! Twitter: @JeffSnider_AIP and @EmilKalinowski
00:32 Business press doesn’t report benchmark revisions despite revisions reframing the past.
02:39 The PCE Deflator data included income data revisions but the media focused on PCE.
03:59 What is Real Income Excluding Transfer Receipts? Why exclude Transfer Receipts?
05:17 Real Income was revised back to 1959. How and why was the data revised?
09:08 Real Income was lower in 2015-16 than originally thought; it was a near US recession.
10:10 The 2017-18 was weaker too but then 2020-21 was and remains WAY, WAY, WAY weaker.
11:59 Income (ex-Transfers) has been flat, sideways and down since January 2020.
14:26 Income weakness implies wage ‘growth’ won’t translate into sustained inflation.

———Ep 94.3 References———

Inflation Estimates (PCE) *Totally* Overshadowed By Benchmark Income Revisions, And The (Deflationary) Implications of Them: https://bit.ly/3yB5JkY
Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWlin
RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7

———Who———

Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments and Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is “Sweet Distraction” by Ealot from Epidemic Sound.