Very much in-line with the stubborn and creative effort to convince you that the economy has healed, policymakers have taken to the notion of “resiliency” as they seek to exit the QE business once again. Janet Yellen seems to work that adjective into every speech she gives, as if the power of her voice were enough to simply make it [...]
There is a growing bid for safety in almost every corner of the globe at this moment, save for a few outliers. Even the 10-year JGP sits at 50 bps today despite the spike in consumer inflation engineered by the Bank of Japan’s QQE. Of course, with BoJ buying up almost everything in sight, that may not be a relevant [...]
There is little for me to say about the GDP figures from Europe, released this week to much shock and discomfort, as I am frankly tired of GDP and eagerly await the unhonored end of its continued mainstream “significance.” The largest problem with it is that its correlation with actual economic results has clearly broken down from whatever it had [...]
In late February 2014, the Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry in Japan put on a seminar with guest lecturer Adam Posen, President of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. The topic of discussion was Abenomics, more broadly, and the Japanese brand of QE specifically. Mr. Posen, from his perch atop an establishment/inside think tank of mainstream economic orthodoxy, [...]
I have little doubt that the most perverse aspect of orthodox economics is the idea of monetary neutrality. Taken as nothing more than an article of faith, monetary practitioners use the principle as cover to undertake drastic and blunt intrusions into markets and economies, with no guilt over having done so because they can simply invoke neutrality and proclaim some [...]
With the introduction of the world’s first major negative interest rate, I believe it was fully expected that the euro would devalue. After all, it sounds very much like an act of debasement, intentional and heavy, that should move the currency “markets”, but that has not been the case. In fact, the euro appears as much captured by confused stasis [...]
What follows here, in the interest of full disclosure, is nothing more than speculative conjecture on my part. This is due mostly to the opacity that dominates gold “markets” and trading oddities that follow from it. My thoughts here are based on gut instinct about recent observations, but that is about as much to solidify any analysis as can be [...]
Entrenched narratives die extremely hard, with all due respect to John McClane’s [Bruce Willis] aging franchise, and I cannot remember something so cemented as the recovery idea this year. That is really saying something considering that each and every New Year’s Day after the trough of the Great Recession has brought out the same exact sentiment, year after year like [...]
As much as overseas markets, particularly emerging, have come roaring back in a lot of places, there is still palpable unease in dollar allocations. That is as much expected as any kind of erosion or dysfunction will take a meandering course of ebbs and flows. But I am a little surprised at how easy the concerns of last year have [...]
Stocks pulled back a bit last week based on the re-emergence of turmoil in Iraq (did it really ever subside or did we just stop paying attention?) and if you believe some of the pundits, Eric Cantor's loss of his primary in VA. That's the first time a House majority leader has ever lost a primary in trying to retain [...]
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