That's the question everyone is asking these days. Will the Fed go ahead and raise interest rates at their next meeting? Or is the economy still so soft they don't dare derail what recovery we've managed to attain? Was last week's employment report good enough to keep the Fed on track to do what they seem to think they need [...]
Setting aside wholesale financial reasons and implications, the crash now in the Brazilian real is not good for anyone. It is, obviously, a disaster for Brazilians but the utter implosion heading toward disintegration in the world’s seventh largest economy (and what once was third in terms of marginal expansion) is both a warning and reflection. The economy there isn’t going [...]
It wouldn’t be a day ending in “y” without some funky news about what the PBOC is now doing. Today’s edition includes the unconfirmed rumors of forex deposits. Apparently the PBOC is going to require, starting October 15 (are they trying to force the bottleneck?), banks to reserve 20% of some figure which isn’t at all clear at the moment. [...]
I think it is worth re-examining at this point, with a lull in the “dollar” at the moment, the effects of dark leverage upon actual bank mechanics and thus actual “dollar” supply. The idea of liquidity in the wholesale system is multi-dimensional and often confusing as it relates to what is typically believed. For example, the week the world woke [...]
In her testimony before Congress in July, Janet Yellen laid out the same talking points that have been propagated onto Americans time and time again these past eight years. The economy is moving forward and the Fed is doing and has done everything it can, and that there are “green shoots” still though no full and mature growth. Low oil [...]
The moment you add the yen to any larger financial discussion it inevitably brings out passionate response. I think that is derived partially from its status as unbelievably durable; if there is one currency in the world that “deserves”, so to speak, ultimate execution it is that of the Japanese. The Bank of Japan has done more than any other [...]
It seems increasingly to dawn on Chinese commentary that there is much more going on than “devaluation.” The latest has drawn in the Chinese hoard of UST assets, as it is clear that China is “selling” them though there is great confusion as to why or even what that actually means. The world of forex “reserves” is a bit more [...]
I think broad trading today actually confirms yesterday’s hypothesis of the marked appearance of fear. In reversing exactly (or nearly so) almost everything from yesterday, across the board, it seems as if the juxtaposition settles that interpretation. I noted that it wasn’t just gold bid in contrast to the selling and “dollar” frenzy, the Swiss franc had joined on the [...]
I know there is tendency for shorthand in media, especially print, but there comes a time when bland or rote description is not just inappropriate but highly misleading. Obviously, all attention is focused on the PBOC not just in turmoil but in how the central bank responds. To say that frustration is brewing is a gigantic understatement especially from the [...]
Why was the stock market down almost 6% last week? I know what you're thinking - has this guy been under a rock somewhere? But I'm serious. I know what all the pundits, commentators and talking heads are saying about the immediate cause. It's about the China devaluation and the knock on effect in other emerging markets. It's about global [...]
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