The foregone conclusions regarding currency devaluation in orthodox policy prescriptions are being turned inside out in Japan, where trade is behaving exactly contrary to all policy expectations. Getting from A to B sounds so tantalizingly easy and simple, but financial complexities (arising out of constant and persistent appeals to financialism itself) go beyond muddying the waters. The same holds true [...]
The global dollar situation continues to get muddied by divergent and apparently unrelated factors of significant scale. The Chinese are still not buying UST with nearly the same vigor that was very evident prior to the dollar travails last year (which I still believe is dollar liquidity rather than PBOC intent), while Japan and Belgium have suddenly found themselves infatuated [...]
Apparently the stasis that has infected credit markets has been visited upon gold prices. Going back to late March, gold has straddled the $1,300 level without straying too far on either side. As with other credit market prices, such stability is conspicuously different from what would be considered “normal” market behavior. Is it possible the two opposing forces affecting gold [...]
The European recovery narrative continues without abate despite the lack of validation by something so basic as employment. In tandem with unemployment, inflation has failed to materialize as promised, more than suggesting far more nuance to the recovery failure than simply a return of positive numbers (including PMI’s). While the disinflation has to be a welcome respite among far too [...]
To say that Greece is an economic and fiscal mess is to be repetitive. While the imprint of victimization stains much of the economic collapse, it is at least somewhat strongly applicable in the reminder that financialism is a huge strain in the long run. As with nearly everything European since last summer, the whispers run toward recovery even in [...]
Bill Dudley, never one to shy from causing controversy, regained the throne of most honest Fed official. Speaking at an economics conference, the President of the New York Branch, the one with all the QE assets, Dudley admitted, "We don't understand fully how large-scale asset purchase programs work to ease financial market conditions, there's still a lot of debate ..." [...]
If ever there was a case of “recession fatigue” it was Europe in the summer of 2013. There has been nothing but optimism from the Continent throughout, and sunshine purportedly reflected a burgeoning recovery that was far more broadly situated than the vagaries of Germany’s export economy. Spain and Italy were to be among those that could proudly proclaim, as [...]
I've been laid up the last week after a minor surgical procedure and while I haven't been that productive at getting any actual work done, it has given me a lot of time to watch CNBC and Bloomberg. The portfolio managers, strategists and assorted market soothsayers stream across my screen, talking about markets the way they always have, as if [...]
The preliminary look at Q2 GDP in Europe has given hope that the corner has been turned and the bottom has finally been found. On a seasonally adjusted, Q/Q basis, Eurozone GDP grew by 0.3%. Before optimism became too entrenched, however, the Bundesbank threw some cold water on these interpretations. Noting seasonal factors, including comparisons, GDP may not have been [...]
Well, that didn't take long. A couple of months ago, Ben Bernanke started the inevitable process of weaning the markets off his monetary methadone. He talked openly about the process of winding down quantitative easing, tapering bond purchases and eventually normalizing monetary policy - assuming the economy cooperated and sustained its feeble but forward momentum. Unfortunately, the markets threw a [...]
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