euro

Again?

By |2017-03-20T17:39:22-04:00March 20th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It is more than interesting that Herbert Hoover has become the modern ideal of the liquidationist. In these very trying times, one is either that or a Keynesian, Hoover’s supposed opposite, an interventionist who believes there is no good in any recession or deflation at any time. To “prove” the superior foundations of the latter, the ideological associates of that [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review

By |2017-03-11T13:38:05-05:00March 11th, 2017|Alhambra Research, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

Economic Reports Scorecard The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise interest rates again at their meeting next week. They obviously view the recent cyclical upturn as being durable and the inflation data as pointing to the need for higher rates. Our market based indicators agree somewhat but nominal and real interest rates are still below their mid-December peaks so [...]

Economic Dissonance, Too

By |2017-03-03T16:59:32-05:00March 3rd, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Germany is notoriously fickle when it comes to money, speaking as much of discipline in economy or industry as central banking. If ever there is disagreement about monetary arrangements, surely the Germans are behind it. Since ECB policy only ever attains the one direction, so-called accommodation, there never seems to be harmony. But that may only be true because “accommodation” [...]

Of Banks, Europe, Euros, and Eurodollars

By |2017-02-22T16:18:10-05:00February 22nd, 2017|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Rather than bury this chart in my earlier discussion of liquidity preferences, I felt it deserved its own piece to highlight what it shows. By all traditional and orthodox Economics, this just should not be possible. Yet, there it is and it’s not the only example of violation. For very different markets as robust as each one is, there should [...]

Banks, Not France, Germany, Or Europe And Euros

By |2017-02-22T13:08:59-05:00February 22nd, 2017|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

If more people desire a certain thing, in a free market the price of that certain thing will go up regardless of any possible inherent value. Indeed, that is how market consensus is supposed to work, the backbone of efficient markets. I don’t believe that markets are or ever can be perfectly efficient, especially in the current age where assumptions [...]

The Missing Money In Europe

By |2017-01-09T17:56:56-05:00January 9th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Europe has not been left out of the “reflation” trend, with some seemingly good news having been reported recently. Inflation has ticked up to the highest in three years. The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for the Euro Area was 1.1% in December 2016, year-over-year, the first measure above 1% since September 2013. It is easy to see oil [...]

A Five-year Further Slump Won’t/Can’t Be Cured Overnight

By |2016-12-13T18:21:12-05:00December 13th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

When US exports were reported a few months ago to have risen (slightly) in August 2016, it was widely expected that that increase was the start of many to follow. It was, after all, the first positive number on the export side since the end of 2014 after more than a year and a half of nothing but contraction. In [...]

The Increasingly Unpredictable Politics of Money

By |2016-12-06T19:15:00-05:00December 6th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Since the ECB began the Public Sector Purchase Program (QE) in the middle of March 2015, it has purchased (through the end of November 2016) almost €1.2 trillion in securities from the financial sector. In addition to that, the central bank has bought €46.2 billion in corporate bonds, and €148 billion of covered bonds in a third iteration in that [...]

Clock Ticks To CNY Again

By |2016-10-11T11:30:08-04:00October 11th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

You can only pick one. Going back to around July 11, the People’s Bank of China decided for whatever their reasons CNY had gone far enough and that the central bank would intervene to all over again to obtain a stable currency importantly against the dollar. This was nothing new, however, as the PBOC had interceded on several other notable [...]

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