It is, if you haven’t noticed, that time of year again. 'Tis the season for green shoots. In the Northern Hemisphere, winter gives way to spring. The flowers start to bloom and humans living here are naturally optimistic for the change of seasons. There is a reason how for ages this time of year has been associated with rebirth. In [...]
It was the most common catchphrase of 2017, interest rates have nowhere to go but up. Maybe it was doomed from the start given that Alan Greenspan was among the more prominent commentators expressing this view. In his mind, the bond market was in a bubble and the party was already over. His successors at the Fed, following in his [...]
The US Treasury Department’s update of its Treasury International Capital (TIC) report for October contained no surprises. In many ways, it was ironically uninteresting given the constant excitement that had happened during that particular month. It was, in a word, a mess for global markets. Liquidations struck throughout the world and more than a month later we are still struggling [...]
At one time, economics actually cared about eurodollars. Maybe it was because the thing was so new, it was a hot, sexy topic, the kind of strange and unusual deviation from the norm that can grasp someone’s attention and hold it. Perhaps it was the way in which it all began, an entire monetary system clandestinely sorted together out of [...]
Eleven years apparently isn't near enough. For the occasion of yet another year passing since August 9, 2007, and nothing much having been done about it, in partnership with MacroVoices I published a second series of Eurodollar University. Whereas Season One focused on the history and buildup of shadow money, where it came from and why, Season Two moved on [...]
Deutsche Bank wasn’t the only global institution under the gun of the US Justice Department. While the German bank settled for a record fine earlier this year, RBS was also hit. Theirs was an eye popping $4.9 billion settlement. The ostensibly British bank had already set aside $3.4 billion for the anticipated civil penalty, meaning that only $1.4 billion (and [...]
In February 2015, a 109-car CSX train derailed near Mount Carbon in West Virginia. The fire the derailment sparked was so massive that firefighters could only stand by and watch it burn itself out. That took just about a week. The reason was the train’s cargo, about 3 million gallons of North Dakota crude oil. It was just the latest [...]
It was never really all that much. The best that might have been said was that it was a pause in the building of renewed deflationary pressures. The dollar had “risen” again especially in April and May, but then traded sideways through July. It wasn’t a rebound or even much that was positive, just less immediate heaviness. That appears to [...]
This year, we've got T-bills and Trump. Two years ago, it was 2a7 and money market funds. I wrote on this day in 2016: Since that point, encompassing both liquidation waves in August and then January and February 2016, the TED spread has been on a more determined upward track as well as being more much, much more volatile as [...]
On August 9, 2007, the eurodollar system cracked. Over the eleven years since that day, the crack has only become enlarged. No amount of QE nor the bank reserves those produced has been able to patch the system back up into functioning condition. The thing lingers on, limping forward through small ups and more serious downturns. One step forward, two [...]
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