In March 2013, orthodox economists were brimming with optimism. There were some rough patches in 2012, to be sure, but the Fed stepped up with a QE3 in MBS and then a QE4 in UST. Since the power of monetarism is a central pillar of the orthodox outlook, the future could only be even brighter than it was. The lackluster [...]
Productivity estimates were better in Q2 than certainly Q1, even revised, but that still doesn’t change the clear disassociation between the BLS’s version of the economy and the BEA’s. That disparity becomes even messier as the BEA’s last benchmark revision sawed off significant “output” dating back to the now-recognized 2012 slowdown. In tandem, the BLS only revised hours worked (back [...]
Since Q1 GDP was revised lower by almost 1% that meant estimates of productivity were going to be even more out of alignment than they were at the first release. Of course, in a less massaged environment productivity might have preserved some sense if there was less rigidity from the BLS on the employment side. In other words, when “output” [...]
The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated. Mark Twain Over the last few years I've read a plethora of articles about this supposedly hated bull market in stocks. It is said that this is the most hated bull market in history and while I'd argue with that a bit, it isn't far off the mark. The desire to be [...]
According to the BLS, this has been the best jobs market in decades going back over a year now. After revisions, you can extend that narrative even into 2013 where it seems like QE3 and QE4 had a major impact on employment. That was the reason that Ben Bernanke appealed so curiously direct toward the unemployment rate in his defense [...]
For the longest time, Jupiter was never thought to play much of a role in celestial mechanics of the much smaller scales in the solar system. Comets and asteroids may not seem to be significant to solar reality, but to those of us that reside on Earth there is much to appreciate about even planetary gravity and the survival of [...]
Economics as a discipline has always fancied itself more of a hard science than a social science. That is why economists like to talk like physicists as if there is surety in the figures they use so publicly. It has even infected media coverage of economics, as the nomenclature about economists’ predictions has taken on an air of the definitive [...]
The dissection of the economy as it exists right now is usually limited to a narrow cross section of only GDP and the unemployment rate. As long as both are moving in the “right” direction, even if relatively sluggishly, the mass conclusion is that a recovery is in force and will remain so absent any “shock.” Theoretically, that owes to [...]
The BLS updated its figures for economic and labor productivity, including the revisions for the first quarter. As it stood prior, the calculation for productivity was among the worst of the past four decades. Given that GDP was already revised lower in the interim, that meant that productivity estimates were going be also sent further downward. Since productivity is a [...]
There are a few more pieces of economic accounts to put together before the disaster of a first quarter can be left behind (if only until the next set of revisions). A major part of the economic picture is derived from productivity, as that feature defines sustainability and ties together labor growth with productive investment. Capitalism is the combination of [...]
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