Walmart disappointed with its earnings announcement for Q2 2013. The string of retailer disappointments (added to Kohl’s and Macy’s) contradicts the narrative of the strengthening consumer. It also runs contrary to recent readings on consumer confidence (which in the age of QE asset inflation may not be registering what economists believe it measures). The important points from Walmart were disappointing [...]
This week’s retail sales report has been used over and over as “evidence” for the second half bounce that every economist and policymaker is expecting (and proclaiming without reservation). Without fail, there is no context accompanying the month-to-month focus on pseudo-precision designed into existence by statistical modeling. The trend continues to be, as it has been for over a year [...]
In Part 1, I noted the more relevant link between the trade economy and economic performance overall, particularly in contrast to the growing dichotomy in the employment segment or jobs market. The Establishment Survey appears to be showing “strength” (at a reduced standard for what constitutes jobs recovery) at odds with other surveys and certainly with these additional economic data [...]
The explicit link between QE and the unemployment rate is supposed to be a rough proxy for the domestic economy’s response to repeated monetary prodding. The question is “how rough” a proxy. The official unemployment rate, as noted before, might have served some use prior to the bubble days, but of the economy as it exists in post-2008 there is [...]
Coincident to the relatively boring retail sales report, the Census Bureau estimated declining trade fortunes across the whole goods supply chain. In the seasonally adjusted data, total trade sales fell 0.1% in April after declining 1.2% in March. Compared to April 2012, total sales were up only 1.5% (meaning they declined on a real basis). Most of the April decline [...]
An absolutely boring report from the Census Bureau, with every indication showing exactly what we have seen since early 2012. Again, the appearance of muddle or stasis is proving irresistible, but still not any demonstrable improvement or monetary breakthrough in the consumer segment. The slowing trend continues at levels consistent with economic contraction, not growth. The last two months’ “bounce” [...]
After two successive months of contraction in retail sales (in real terms), April’s estimated balance was a bounce higher. Given the volatile nature of economic data, this upward move is not unexpected. Total retail sales (including food, autos and gasoline) grew 4.5% in April 2013 Y/Y, much better than the 0.98% and 1.95% in February and March, respectively. Despite that [...]
...does not always equal causation, but sometimes the data fits the inference.
Late Friday the Treasury Department released its semi-annual report on global exchange rates or as I like to call it, the semi-annual report on why all other countries on planet earth should let their currencies rise against the UD Dollar. Or maybe the semi-annual report on how easy monetary policy by other countries' central banks is bad but it isn't [...]
This morning's retail sales figure from the Census Bureau shows a Y/Y increase (unadjusted) of only 1.79%. That is the second worst month since the recovery took hold in later 2009. The worst month was actually last month, which means the current condition in retail trade is, by far, the worst two months since the Great Recession. In fact, as [...]
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