I don't spend a lot of time trying to predict the future, mostly because, as I pointed out just last week, I'm not very good at it. There's no shame in that and it doesn't impair my ability to invest; the gift of prophecy is not necessary. A couple of weeks ago, right before the election I speculated on what [...]
To everything turn, turn, turn There is a season turn, turn, turn And a time to every purpose under Heaven A time to be born, a time to die A time to plant, a time to reap A time to kill, a time to heal A time to laugh, a time to weep To everything turn, turn, turn There is [...]
The election this week appears to be a tossup, the outcome dependent on how a few swing states vote. The polls, whether national or focused on a single state, show totals for each candidate mostly within the margin of error. Betting markets have been showing a more definitive leader, with all of them putting higher odds on former president Trump. [...]
But how do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values, which then become subject to unexpected and prolonged contractions... - Alan Greenspan, The Challenge of Central Banking in a Democratic Society, at the Annual Dinner and Francis Boyer Lecture of The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, Washington, D.C., December 5, 1996 Are investors too optimistic? [...]
This week's update will be confined to the observations in the labeled sections below. My wife and I have been in NYC since the middle of last week to explore some previously unknown family relationships courtesy of 23andMe. It has been an exciting week for our previously small family. My wife is - was - an only child - adopted [...]
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, there are a lot of questions facing investors. There are, of course, always a lot of questions because investors are always dealing with the future, but today's environment does seems to have more than usual. Some of these questions concern short-term considerations and while they are important, it is more important to [...]
There has been a lot of talk over the last few months about the US economy slowing but there is scant evidence of it in the economic data. The latest lack of evidence came last Friday with the release of the September employment report which was quite a bit better than expected. The establishment survey showed the economy added 254k [...]
I wanted to update my previous post to add some groups helping with Hurricane Helene relief. I've highlighted some animal charities at the top; thanks Barbara for reminding me that the animals are stressed too. Please donate if you can. We will be posting more on the relief efforts over the coming weeks. I went through many hurricanes as a [...]
I have been visiting the Asheville, NC area since I was in college back in the late 70s and spent a lot of time up there hiking and camping. I have been back repeatedly over the years and Alhambra has a number of clients in that area. I have spoken with people in the Asheville and eastern TN area and [...]
Unfortunately, I will not be posting a detailed commentary this week. I live in SC, near Augusta, GA and we were hit pretty hard by Hurricane Helene. Our power has been out since early Friday morning but the good news is that our damage was confined to a lot of down tree limbs and one, quite large, tree uprooted in the [...]
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