For a while now, it has been the subject of some debate around the office whether the dearth of earnings and sales growth that we saw in the second quarter and are seeing in the third quarter is the beginning of the end. In other words, are the decline in earnings and revenues a forewarning of recession? Or, is it [...]
Top News Headlines 129 Dead, Over 500 injured in Paris Attacks Retail stocks bludgeoned after earnings reports Republicans and Democrats Debate, America Appalled At Choices Stocks fall, bonds rally, oil craters Selfish brats protest adulthood, demand to be coddled in University demonstrations Economic News Neil Kashkar named head of Minneapolis Fed Eurozone growth slows, industrial output down again, exports weaken [...]
The risk budget this month is unchanged. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds remains at a defensive 40/60 versus the benchmark of 60/40. Credit spreads narrowed on the month but the widening trend is intact and has recently resumed. Valuations are still excessive and 3rd quarter earnings have been generally downbeat. A divergence is [...]
Economic Reports Scorecard – 10/24/15 to 11/6/15 The economic data of the last two weeks stands in fairly sharp contrast to the markets' movements. Markets, particularly bonds and gold, are going all in, betting that this time Yellen & Co. have it right, that growth is really about to accelerate this time. From the end of the last FOMC meeting [...]
Top News Headlines Obama sticks a fork in Keystone after company withdraws request. Valeant troubles continue; CEO sells stock after margin call. Bill Ackman having a very bad month. DOJ ratchets up scrutiny of drug pricing. Seeking information from MRK, LLY and, of course, VRX. Berkshire Hathaway's profit more than doubles; other earnings news last week was pretty poor. Economic [...]
Top News Headlines October best month for stocks in four years. Valeant troubles continue. Pfizer, Allergan consider merger. Earnings, earnings, earnings. CNBC botches Republican debate. Debt deal reached between President and Republicans. Economic News Fed leaves rates unchanged; statement points to December hike. Yeah, right. BOJ leaves QE program as is. GDP disappoints at 1.5% for 3rd quarter. New and [...]
Stocks rallied strongly last week in response to comments by Mario Draghi that signaled a willingness, a determination in fact, to engage in more monetary stimulus. In fact, Draghi seemed to promise - once again - to do "whatever it takes", offering to consider "a whole menu of monetary policy instruments" in saying that the ECB was now "vigilant". One [...]
Top News Headlines Paul Ryan running for Speaker of the House. Old tech blows out earnings estimates; GOOGL, AMZN and MSFT lead the way. Huge hurricane heads for Mexico. Hillary testifies, Republicans look stupid.....again. Mets sweep the Cubs; my friend Jim sighs. Economic News ECB hints at more QE; stocks soar. China cuts interest rates and reserve requirements; stocks soar. [...]
Economic Reports Scorecard – 10/12/15 to 10/24/15 The bifurcated nature of the economy is on display for all to see in the economic data from the last two weeks. Manufacturing continues to struggle as shown by the Fed surveys, the CFNAI, IP and inventories. Meanwhile, housing continues to improve in both the existing home and new home side of the [...]
The risk budget this month is unchanged. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds remains at a defensive 40/60 versus the benchmark of 60/40. HY credit spreads continued to widen on the month indicating continuing stress in that market. Spreads did not widen sufficiently to generate an additional sell signal. Valuations are still near recent [...]
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