With inflation recently hitting a high not seen since 1981, it is now apparent that the factors that drove the disinflation trend of the last four decades are coming to an end. Globalization and demographics, the two big factors that combined to hold down prices and wages for so long, are reversing, and so too is the downtrend in prices, wages, [...]
With inflation recently hitting a high not seen since 1981, it is now apparent that the factors that drove the disinflation trend of the last four decades are coming to an end. Globalization and demographics, the two big factors that combined to hold down prices and wages for so long, are reversing, and so too is the downtrend in prices, wages, [...]
With inflation recently hitting a high not seen since 1981, it is now apparent that the factors that drove the disinflation trend of the last four decades are coming to an end. Globalization and demographics, the two big factors that combined to hold down prices and wages for so long, are reversing, and so too is the downtrend in prices, wages, [...]
No one knows what the future holds. Not me, not you, and certainly not Wall Street. But while the future is impossible to see, the present is clear for anyone willing to listen to the story the market tells every day. Here's what it said in 2021: Click here to download “2021 In Review: Year End Economic Assessment” (Sign-Up Required). This report includes [...]
No one knows what the future holds. Not me, not you, and certainly not Wall Street. But while the future is impossible to see, the present is clear for anyone willing to listen to the story the market tells every day. Here's what it said in 2021: Click here to download “2021 In Review: Year End Economic Assessment” (Sign-Up Required). This report includes [...]
There’s a common misconception that Medicare is a simple, automatic process when you turn 65. Nothing could be further from the truth. The responsibility to enroll is on your shoulders, and if you miss deadlines or don’t enroll in just the right way, you can incur penalties that will consume chunks of your retirement income for the rest of your [...]
If the recession was the first "shoe to drop", what's the second...or third? The shock of the self-inflicted COVID recession is behind us. What we're all wondering now is what comes next? Will the economy recover to its previous state? Something better? Something worse? That will be determined by the second and third-order effects and they are already starting. Our Special [...]
It doesn’t take much effort to find bearish sentiment about stocks or the economy right now. CNN’s Fear & Greed Index, an amalgam of seven discrete market sentiment indicators, is still in the “Extreme Fear” zone. Generally, market bottoms are associated with extreme fear while tops are associated with extreme greed. And it generally works; the gauge was pegged in [...]
Stocks took another beating last week as the scope of the coronavirus shutdown started to sink in. The S&P 500 was down 15% last week with most of that coming on Monday after the Fed’s emergency rate cuts. Our accounts performed much better than that, but were still down on the week as corporate and municipal bonds continued to get [...]
The Yield Curve Inverted! Recession is Coming! Note: We first posted this research paper in August 2019, when the yield curve inverted for the first time in the current economic cycle. Well, it inverted once again yesterday, so... Do you need to worry about the yield curve inversion? Not if you have a strategy appropriate to your circumstances. Not if [...]
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