A few have asked, so I’ve written up what is actually a shorter piece on this SLR business is all about. First, SLR stands for Supplementary Leverage Ratio (and it’s not SLF, as I managed to leave two of the same typos in the main article referenced below, to the point the mistake made it into the headline). Parts of [...]
47.0 BONUS MAKING MORE SENSE: Will Biden’s stimulus overheat the US economy?Jeff Snider reacts LIVE! to an article from The Economist. The magazine offers three arguments why the US economy might overheat in 2021: evidence that the downturn is temporary; generous fiscal stimulus; and the Federal Reserve’s monetary-policy strategy. [Emil’s Summary] Having studied monetary policy for several years it was only [...]
It’s worth taking a look at a couple of extremes, and the putting each into wider context of inflation/deflation. As you no doubt surmise, only one is receiving much mainstream attention. The other continues to be overshadowed by…anything else. To begin with, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today that US import prices were up on annual basis for [...]
46.3 On the Economic Road to NothingGoodVilleRecent, low consumer price inflation readings combined with falling US Treasury Bill yields are cautionary sign posts that say this reflationary path may not be the road to recovery but a deflationary cul-de-sac. [Emil’s Summary] Having studied monetary policy for several years it was only natural that your podcaster spent considerable time contemplating the essential [...]
The Aussies weren’t the first to drive into the YCC channel. That “honor” belonged instead where it always does: Japan. The Japanese had also pioneered yield curve control just like they had for practically every single element behind post-crisis monetary policy everywhere else around the world. It’s always a safe bet that if some central bank somewhere starts doing something [...]
American consumers were back in action in January 2021. The “unemployment cliff” along with the slowdown and contraction in the labor market during the last quarter of 2020 had left retail sales falling backward with employment. Seasonally-adjusted, total retail spending had declined for three straight months to end last year.The latest updated estimates from the Census Bureau, released today, show [...]
46.2 Nevada Solution to Covid Economy: CEO as RulerNevada's tourism economy has been wrecked by the Corona. Governor Sisolak, to encourage investment, is proposing to offer corporations to set up their own local government structures. [Emil’s Summary] Having studied monetary policy for several years it was only natural that your podcaster spent considerable time contemplating the essential elements of fiction. Some [...]
Long end UST yields on the rise with reflation-y factors taking more of a hold, last year’s postponed YCC flirtation is almost certain to be rekindled over the weeks ahead. We’ve been told how it’s really simple, meaning low interest rates are stimulus and this must be maintained without fail. But what’s really been responsible for all the failing?When I [...]
The idea behind post-Georgia reflation is that globally fiscal-led “stimulus” will be enough to fix what’s still wrong. The economy broke down, by choice, last year but with sufficient zeroes behind governments spending around the world, from DC to Brussels and a bunch in between, whatever costs and consequences remaining due from 2020 aren’t going to be unmanageable for 2021. [...]
46.1 Interbank Netting: The Pressure to Get to ZeroPrivate banks fund global economic activity. But how do they move money among themselves? We consider the November 20, 1985 software glitch that shocked the interbank market. Then, a brief history of Fedwire, Telex, SWIFT and CHIPS. Finally, September 2019's repo market freeze. [Emil's Summary] Having studied monetary policy for several years [...]
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