The payroll report missed badly, as the headline “job creation” number gained only 38k in May 2016. That was the lowest monthly gain of the entire “recovery.” Last month’s figure, which had already caused significant angst, was revised even lower to just 123k. The mainstream is predictably apoplectic, and why wouldn’t it be? After all, month after month after month [...]
It might be too early in the week, though not likely since only the irrelevant payroll report is really left, and too soon for definitive conclusions, but if I had to pick a chart of the week it would actually be this series. They declare a lot more about the potential intermediate term than the BLS numbers can or will. [...]
Some legitimate scientists are legitimately worried about the spread of information. The lack of boundaries afforded by an open internet has left the world awash in it, and with no shortage of opinion. This is a good thing. However, there is a downside in that unfiltered and unrefined information as it can be used to mislead both the person wielding [...]
The OECD pleaded this morning for more “coordinated action”, i.e., “stimulus”, without even bothering to explain why anyone would feel confident if governments around the world might actually oblige. This economy, the singular global economy, has been stimulated to death, awash in especially monetary influence of constant ZIRP and QE’s and now threatened by nominal punishment through NIRP. When all [...]
As with China’s manufacturing, so goes global manufacturing. Rather than rebounding out of 2016’s dismal start, the failure to follow through in April and now May simply proves yet again that nothing has changed. These PMI sentiment surveys are believed to be far more precise than they really are. Even though the ISM Manufacturing PMI, for example, rose slightly to [...]
China’s official manufacturing PMI was unchanged at 50.1 in May. As such, the media doesn’t know what to make of it. It’s slightly less than the 50.2 “rebound” in March, but still more than the drastic low of 49 in February. Because the index value is above 50, commentary is generally of cautious optimism. We have seen this before, several [...]
Ten days ago, it was reported that the Bank of Japan for the first time set aside reserves against expected losses should its massive portfolio of JGB’s finally move toward QQE success. The main part of all this “stimulus” has been the accumulation of primarily government bonds at massive premiums. If it were ever to actually work, then the Japanese [...]
The ISM Chicago Business Barometer PMI fell back below 50 again in May, the ninth time in the past sixteen months that the index came out under the supposed dividing line. It is more likely, however, that US businesses especially in manufacturing just don’t know what to make of the past year and a half or so, and have switched [...]
Two weeks ago, Chinese stock futures traded in Hong Kong flash crashed. Between 2:14pm and 2:16pm local time on May 17, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index suddenly liquidated due to an intense burst of sell orders that crashed through the whole of the futures market depth. At the start, the index was trading at around +1% but fell to [...]
Economic Reports Scorecard The standout reports from the last two weeks are mostly real estate related. The Housing Market Index kicked things off two Mondays ago with a solid reading of 58 (this is a sentiment index with 50 as the dividing line between positive and negative). Homebuilders are not gaga with optimism but this number has been fairly consistent [...]
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