Taxes/Fiscal Policy

Smoothing Global Growth through Regionally Counter Cyclical Credit

By Marcelo Perez|2015-06-14T06:42:12-04:00June 14th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

"While most investors were preoccupied with deflation, related to last year's plunge in oil prices, and the seemingly hopelessness of quantitative easing, a stealth recovery in private sector global credit demand was underway. We examined prospects for credit growth..which highlighted some surprising developments relative to the economic pessimism that had caused government bond yields to massively undershoot:" "The monetary transmission mechanism [...]

Circle of Economic Life

By Marcelo Perez|2015-03-29T13:00:54-04:00March 29th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

Are we going to get a repeat of 1937-38? Are rate hikes going to put us into recession? Analysts Earnings revisions have been extreme. Are we going into recession? Where does one invest? 1937-38 Comparisons When one compares 2008-2009 to the great depression, there is a natural progression in the narrative to look for the "double-dip" that was 1937-38. Caution, [...]

Questions For 2015

By Joseph Y. Calhoun III|2014-12-21T18:18:49-05:00December 21st, 2014|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

Well, it's that time of year again, when all the pundits offer their crystal ball views of the coming new year. I don't usually participate in the prediction game and this year won't be any different. Like everyone else I wonder what the future holds but I know I have no special ability to predict how it might unfold. What [...]

Rising Dollar: Good News, Bad News

By Joseph Y. Calhoun III|2014-12-07T18:00:37-05:00December 7th, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

So here we are nearly 6 years removed from the last global financial crisis – surely not the last – and while a lot has been done by global economic policymakers, it seems that not much has really been accomplished. Globally, debt has risen since the crisis despite the cries from some quarters of “austerity”; deleveraging is a myth. Even [...]

Political Economy

By Joseph Y. Calhoun III|2014-11-09T19:44:54-05:00November 9th, 2014|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

I hate to do it, but I'm going to have to write about politics this week. Believe me, it isn't something I relish, but in light of the recent election, it would be dereliction of duty to ignore the elephant and donkey in the room. Let's get this out of the way right up front; Obama got shellacked last Tuesday. [...]

What Happens When You Don’t Actually Own It

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2014-10-27T16:37:07-04:00October 27th, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

The very character and content for “money” has undergone a radical shift particularly as banking and central banking has attained its latest incarnation. However, even making that statement is somewhat misleading since “money” has been absent from the United States for almost a century. For the most part, nobody seems to have missed it, at least directly, as the economy [...]

A Market That Satisfies No One

By Joseph Y. Calhoun III|2014-10-26T12:29:55-04:00October 26th, 2014|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

Stocks rebounded in spectacular fashion last week, the angst of the last few weeks apparently forgotten as quickly as a central banker can float a trial balloon. First there was the Bullard bounce that moved us off the lows when things were looking their grimmest and then last week we got a rumor about the ECB potentially buying corporate bonds [...]

Secular Stagnation Or The Cusp Of A Boom?

By Joseph Y. Calhoun III|2014-09-01T14:59:13-04:00September 1st, 2014|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

I've mentioned several times recently that within Alhambra we often have vigorous debates about the economy and markets. I'm a big believer in the power of competition to improve outcomes whether we are talking about the macro economy or the micro debates about portfolio strategy in which we engage. The debates we have internally are a form of intellectual competition, [...]

Careful What You Wish For…

By Joseph Y. Calhoun III|2014-06-29T21:36:19-04:00June 29th, 2014|Bonds, Economy, Markets, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

So be careful what you wish for 'Cause you just might get it And if you get it then you just might not know What to do wit' it, 'cause it might just Come back on you ten-fold Eminem, Careful What You Wish For There was a collective gasp on Wall Street last week as the 3rd revision of 1st [...]

When A Surge In Activity Is Actually Quite Ominous

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2014-05-06T10:28:36-04:00May 6th, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

March household spending in Japan surged by 7.2% Y/Y, the highest spending growth rate since 1975. That level even beat out March 1997, the month before the previous and similar tax hike. Extrapolating from that one number, there is now more hope that the Japanese economy may be able to withstand April’s tax intrusion without an economic disaster like that [...]

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