Bonds

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 46; Part 2: Sin City Roulette, The Endangered Gazelles

By |2021-02-17T15:33:00-05:00February 17th, 2021|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

46.2 Nevada Solution to Covid Economy: CEO as RulerNevada's tourism economy has been wrecked by the Corona. Governor Sisolak, to encourage investment, is proposing to offer corporations to set up their own local government structures. [Emil’s Summary] Having studied monetary policy for several years it was only natural that your podcaster spent considerable time contemplating the essential elements of fiction. Some [...]

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With YCC About To Come Back Up, A Look At It Down Under

By |2021-02-16T20:28:36-05:00February 16th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Long end UST yields on the rise with reflation-y factors taking more of a hold, last year’s postponed YCC flirtation is almost certain to be rekindled over the weeks ahead. We’ve been told how it’s really simple, meaning low interest rates are stimulus and this must be maintained without fail. But what’s really been responsible for all the failing?When I [...]

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Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 46; Part 1: Getting Fishy in the CHIPS

By |2021-02-16T15:38:34-05:00February 16th, 2021|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

46.1 Interbank Netting: The Pressure to Get to ZeroPrivate banks fund global economic activity. But how do they move money among themselves? We consider the November 20, 1985 software glitch that shocked the interbank market. Then, a brief history of Fedwire, Telex, SWIFT and CHIPS. Finally, September 2019's repo market freeze. [Emil's Summary] Having studied monetary policy for several years [...]

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Weekly Market Pulse – February 15, 2021

By |2021-02-15T20:10:42-05:00February 15th, 2021|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Stocks|

This is a holiday-shortened week in the US but there is some important data on tap. Retail sales are expected to show a month-to-month rise for the first time since September. Year-over-year numbers remain pretty subdued and likely will until life returns to something resembling normal. Producer prices will likely rise but inflation continues its benign ways. It is likely [...]

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Insufferable SOFR, Suffering

By |2021-02-12T16:52:09-05:00February 12th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Sometimes, the government will tell you a lot when it really doesn’t want to tell you anything. It’s not what they say, but what they don’t. In the case of the Treasury Department, there was a small, seemingly nondescript morsel buried down underneath the rest of its more immediately consequential next-quarter projections. While focused, quite rightly, on the scaling back [...]

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The Cautionary Tale of Undocumented Insanity

By |2021-02-10T19:35:15-05:00February 10th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Japan is just the name of a group of large islands on the far side of the Pacific from the United States. For most people, there’s not much else more to say beyond the charm of weird, ofttimes masochistic tendencies embedded within the inscrutably fascinating Japanese gameshows. Maybe something about suicidal demographics. The financial media has done such a poor [...]

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Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 45; Part 1: All About Treasury, Sadly Not Buffalo, Bills

By |2021-02-08T15:16:20-05:00February 8th, 2021|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

45.1 Why Are US Treasury Bills in Such High Demand?There is a mainstream explanation for why US Treasury Bill rates are falling. There is also a Eurodollar / Shadow Money / Collateral System explanation. Jeff Snider reviews the two perspectives and looks ahead to where trouble may lay. ———WHO——— Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPTwitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiArt: https://davidparkins.com/ Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments [...]

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Too Much TGA

By |2021-02-05T20:09:27-05:00February 5th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

If you remember back to September 2019’s repo rumble, in its immediate aftermath - as well as for some time thereafter - a common explanation put forward for the disruption had been related to a sudden increase in tax liabilities. It was said that an unusually high level of especially corporate receipts had left the Treasury flush with extra cash. [...]

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Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 44; Part 2: China’s Straight & Narrow

By |2021-05-10T16:43:17-04:00February 4th, 2021|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

44.2 China Announces 'No Sharp Turns' for Bad EconomyChina's economy reported positive numbers, yet they are anything but positive. Despite being the only large economy to grow in 2020, and in spite of analysts forecasting further acceleration in 2021, the "No Sharp Turns" policy implies concern of internal fragility. [Emil’s Summary] Ad Astra is Latin for “to the stars”, which is [...]

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