This has already been one of the longest economic expansions on record for the US and there is little in the data or markets to indicate that is about to come to an end. Current levels of the yield curve are comparable to late 2005 in the last cycle. It was almost two years later before we even had an [...]
On June 10, 2013, Brazil’s central bank announced an allotment of 40,000 currency swap contracts at auction. This was the second operation carried out in short order that month, following weakness in the real, Brazil’s currency (BRL), against the dollar. In order to forestall any further declines, central bank intervention has long been a frontline tool in EM arsenals. But [...]
You never quite know what you’re going to get with each monthly update. High frequency data tends to be noisy anyway, more so in the more exotic series. Following a month where something really changes, however, you aren’t quite sure if it will turn out to be nothing more than a phantom. Does last month’s big number get revised down [...]
What has changed in China? Many if not most in the West haven’t yet caught on because they can’t conceive of where all this might be heading. One literal change was the appointment of Yi Gang as head of the People’s Bank of China. Not only did he replace longtime chief Zhou Xiaochuan, Yi’s elevation broke an even lengthier unwritten [...]
If everything was going to plan, non-standard monetary policy at the zero lower bound (QE) would have raised inflation expectations increasing the level of aggregate demand as businesses and consumers ramped up their activities in anticipation of higher costs. The more this “overheating” goes on, the more forceful it becomes. Eventually, by virtue of the Phillips Curve, aggregate demand is [...]
By the time Shinzo Abe had been elected, he already had the wind at his back. At least it could have been described that way by Economists. While Abe was given a second chance at being Japan’s Prime Minister in the middle of December 2012, his government found the yen and stock market moving in his direction. These are called [...]
It sounds a little like regret. It also leans in the direction of confirming that policymakers know they’ve messed up, big time. This has become the established pattern, for good reason. What they don’t know, to our collective downfall, is what to do about it. They’ve decided just to pretend while in office it didn’t happen the way it actually [...]
Industrial Production in the United States increased by 4.9% year-over-year in August 2018. That’s the best for American industry in 92 months going all the way back to December 2010. Hurray for the boom. As with retail sales, August was in position for the best possible monthly comparison. Unlike retail sales, IP has another month of favorable base effects given [...]
It’s no longer possible to know what state Chinese industry may be in. This is no small matter. Industrial production in China is the bedrock of economic growth throughout the rest of the world. Without it, there really isn’t anything left to do but struggle. And since industry’s performance there is predicated on demand in the Western world, this is [...]
For the second consecutive month, retail sales recorded by gasoline stations surged by an annual rate of more than 20%. It was the fourth month in a row where sales have been up by nearly that amount. Last year’s jump in oil prices is feeding through in a number of ways. From headline inflation rates to now consumer spending, the [...]
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