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Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 45; Part 2: Reflations Getting Weaker, Less Reflation-y
Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 45; Part 2: Reflations Getting Weaker, Less Reflation-y

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 45; Part 2: Reflations Getting Weaker, Less Reflation-y

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-02-10T19:27:32-05:00February 10th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

45.2 Examining the Post-Covid Economic ReflationWe look through the lenses of the dollar, Treasury yields, inflation breakevens, swap spreads to see how this Post-Covid reflation compares to the three economic recoveries of the past 13 years: Green Shoots (2009-10), Global Growth (2012-14) and Globally Synchronized Growth (2016-18). ———WHO——— Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPTwitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiArt: https://davidparkins.com/ Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with [...]

The Endangered Inflationary Species: Gazelles

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-02-10T19:23:52-05:00February 10th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Nevada is, by all accounts and accountants, in rough shape. Very rough shape. An economy overly dependent upon a single industry, tourism, in this case, is a disaster waiting to happen should anything happen to that industry. Pandemic restrictions, for instance.Nevadans cannot afford the government spending they “have” without a gaming industry attracting visitors at full throttle. Desperate, the state’s [...]

The Cautionary Tale of Undocumented Insanity

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-02-10T19:35:15-05:00February 10th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Japan is just the name of a group of large islands on the far side of the Pacific from the United States. For most people, there’s not much else more to say beyond the charm of weird, ofttimes masochistic tendencies embedded within the inscrutably fascinating Japanese gameshows. Maybe something about suicidal demographics. The financial media has done such a poor [...]

Old Numbers Show Us Why There’ll Be New Checks

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-02-09T16:51:57-05:00February 9th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

If the payroll numbers are old news because they aren’t supposed to matter anymore, what with TGA drawdowns and vaccines, then JOLTS figures one month further behind them must count for even less. Gradation does factor here, though, and that’s why it’s important to keep the current and slightly-in-arrears data in mind.What I mean is that the stimulus-frenzy narrative does [...]

Permanent Jobs And Permanent Job Losses

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-02-08T19:43:08-05:00February 8th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Even the feds haven’t been able to keep up. Without the government having taken over student loans in the wake of 2008-09’s Great “Recession”, there’d have been almost no additional consumer credit extended during the decade since. It’s one more facet to the recovery-less recovery; like Japan, a dominant even overbearing government influence that doesn’t stimulate anything but its own [...]

Upcoming Bill Cliff Refunding Recalls Rerun Reverse Repo

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-02-08T18:20:04-05:00February 8th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There is another part to the upcoming July debt ceiling constraint. On the one hand, as noted last week, the Department of Treasury will have to draw down its checking account balance it holds at the Federal Reserve (TGA). There are, as there have always been, consequences for doing so insofar as bank reserves are concerned. These are extrapolated into [...]

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 45; Part 1: All About Treasury, Sadly Not Buffalo, Bills
Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 45; Part 1: All About Treasury, Sadly Not Buffalo, Bills

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 45; Part 1: All About Treasury, Sadly Not Buffalo, Bills

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-02-08T15:16:20-05:00February 8th, 2021|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

45.1 Why Are US Treasury Bills in Such High Demand?There is a mainstream explanation for why US Treasury Bill rates are falling. There is also a Eurodollar / Shadow Money / Collateral System explanation. Jeff Snider reviews the two perspectives and looks ahead to where trouble may lay. ———WHO——— Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPTwitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiArt: https://davidparkins.com/ Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments [...]

Too Much TGA

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-02-05T20:09:27-05:00February 5th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

If you remember back to September 2019’s repo rumble, in its immediate aftermath - as well as for some time thereafter - a common explanation put forward for the disruption had been related to a sudden increase in tax liabilities. It was said that an unusually high level of especially corporate receipts had left the Treasury flush with extra cash. [...]

What Happened To The ‘Bring Everything Back’ Function?

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-02-05T17:41:27-05:00February 5th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The good news, such that it might be, is that the BLS - using data from the Census Bureau - believes that the American population is slowing down. According to the latest Civilian Non-institutional population estimates for January 2021, published alongside the current payroll report, the count was adjusted downward by around 400,000 consistent with the same kind and level [...]

Even The People ‘Printing’ The ‘Money’ Aren’t Seeing It

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-02-04T19:37:46-05:00February 4th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Everyone in Europe has long forgotten about what was going on there before COVID. First, an economy that had been stuck two years within a deflationary downturn central bankers like Italy’s new recycled top guy Mario Draghi clumsily mistook for an inflationary takeoff. Both the inflation puzzle and ultimately a pre-pandemic recession have taken a back seat to everything corona.Whereas [...]

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 45; Part 2: Reflations Getting Weaker, Less Reflation-y

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 45; Part 1: All About Treasury, Sadly Not Buffalo, Bills

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