44.2 China Announces 'No Sharp Turns' for Bad EconomyChina's economy reported positive numbers, yet they are anything but positive. Despite being the only large economy to grow in 2020, and in spite of analysts forecasting further acceleration in 2021, the "No Sharp Turns" policy implies concern of internal fragility. [Emil’s Summary] Ad Astra is Latin for “to the stars”, which is [...]
Mario Draghi is back to save Italy by now running it. Like Janet Yellen resurfacing at the US Treasury, these people are thought of in the most positive terms simply because the public remains blissfully unaware of basic data. Not without good reason; the public had for decades come to count on central bankers (for all anyone knew) to keep [...]
Tomorrow represents the 6-month mark for the Treasury market. On August 4, 2020, nominal benchmark 10-year yields declined to their absolute closing lows. Over the half-year since, rates have generally been on the rise which should be a long enough period by which to categorize our interpretations of what it all means.Most mainstream commentary places any upward trend (of any [...]
Was it all mere window dressing? A con pulled by cunning Communists who needed to secure the collateral security of an intended transition toward the opposite direction? What a difference a few years makes, then, given how when Xi Jinping began his term in 2012 the word most in the West used to describe his agenda was “reform.” Every strongman [...]
I think because the big, public failures of GFC1 haven’t repeated the public has been given a false sense of stability. While the idea of subprime mortgages being responsible for all that went on during 2008 has remained generally accepted, there was for a time an awakened recognition that big financial firms were doing complicated things in the monetary shadows [...]
There are those people who will remain convinced forever forward that the Federal Reserve is run by capable technocrats absolutely skilled at maintaining for the free peoples of the United States their financial freedom. At a general level, they are thought to do so by signaling to market and economic participants just how these should respond to monetary policy inputs. [...]
44.1 Linking the Long and Great Depressions to TodaySocial upheaval, mass unemployment and economic desperation - this isn't the first time. We look at how the modern unemployment rate came about during the crises of The Long Depression. Also, real GDP-per-capita growth comparisons between The Long and Great Depressions to today. [Emil’s Summary] Ad Astra is Latin for "to the stars", [...]
Is there a charmed fiscal number that unlocks the inflationary promised-land? Central bank Economists have spent more than a decade in the West, two in Japan, desperately seeking the magic number QE. Though their own research is substantial and conclusive that LSAP’s like QE don’t work, and never have, officials conclude instead that it always comes up short because it [...]
There are those people who will remain convinced forever forward that the Federal Reserve is run by evil geniuses absolutely intent upon robbing the free peoples of the United States of their financial freedom. As evidence, they point to one unsuccessful, controversial monetary policy after another, none of them effective at accomplishing their main task of putting the economic and [...]
If you remember 2018’s economic “boom”, you’ll likely recall that year’s second quarter. Set up by December 2017’s Tax Cut and Jobs Act, when the BEA published GDP estimates for those three months that July, the unusual 4% growth rate seemed to have confirmed the positive effects of tax reform “stimulus” funded by a substantial increase in the fiscal deficit. [...]
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