Amidst all the pearls of wisdom unleashed in mainstream economics over the past unbelievable eight years or so, it was one paragraph of common sense that had it been written and appreciated at the start of this period might have saved us all the inordinate and totally unwarranted trouble. But borrowers will only demand more credit if they have optimistic [...]
There is undoubtedly serious stratification in the housing market, as higher end homes have no trouble selling at greater and greater price points. That, in turn, has left those owing homes in the tiers below struggling, supposedly, to do what Americans of past generations have done – move up to bigger and better. Because these middle level home owners are [...]
No matter how bad the economy seems to get elsewhere in various data series, the unemployment rate and the common assessment of the labor market (provided by the Establishment Survey) usually prevails. It has become almost a template where any description of the offending economic account will attach some version of, “X was down unexpectedly but should only be temporary [...]
As the major stock indices overtake or threaten psychological round numbers again (S&P 500 2,100; DJIA 18,000), they have done so with the same problem as occurred in 2015. Stocks have been overvalued for some time in historical comparison especially after QE3 and QE4, but it was supposed to be in anticipation of the full recovery that QE would make. [...]
The focus on China and the Chinese economy is not just related to its size but more so the fact that it is the pivot point for the whole global system. In pure economic terms, as “end demand” from the developed world economies slows, the Chinese economy either absorbs that reduction (through its own internal “stimulus”) or passes it on [...]
There is little doubt as to Wall Street (and London) shrinking but nobody seems to be able to come up with an explanation for it. Typically willful blindness is the reason, as investment banks no longer want the duties but that just isn’t consistent with what is supposed to be a roaring economy. If anyone were to make out under [...]
It is remarkable the disparity in views on display by various markets and what that suggests about what is driving each. In stocks and especially junk bonds, you get the sense of a massive sigh of relief that “it’s all over”, and while scary for a time it’s back to momentum and not missing out on the big money bargains. [...]
My cousin, Navy Captain Rob Calhoun, is running a half marathon next weekend to benefit the Arkansas Children's Hospital. I have never before asked our readers to support any cause but I'm going to break that streak today. Rob is a genuine American hero, a former fighter pilot and current Naval Academy professor. His resume is so impressive I wonder [...]
Economic Reports Scorecard Survey based economic reports continue to run counter to real world, actual data. Since the real data tends to lag, an optimist would probably take this as good news. A pessimist would dismiss it altogether as useless survey based data. Me? I'm a realistic optimist. I see the survey based data as potentially positive since attitude and [...]
There is great allure in comparing our current economic circumstances to those in 1937, and why wouldn’t there be? The associations are especially striking, starting with the gaping hole left over by each contraction. Each recovery, then and now, was at least moving in the right direction but not nearly fast enough to close the gaps. So where growth rates [...]
Stay In Touch