With China prepared to open again after a weeklong holiday absence, the breaking news from Deutsche Bank signaling a huge loss expectation for Q3 is not good timing. As noted previously, China’s various wholesale “dollar” fill, in the end, is truly dependent on a good and robust “dollar” environment appearing sometime soon. Deutsche was one of the last global holdouts [...]
Even a quick glance at recent t-bill rates commands further attention. There is obviously a lot going on in the bills market just in the past few months, which may only be unexpected in the sense that there isn’t a plain connection between US government bills and the fireworks elsewhere. T-bills used to be, however, the primary source of repo [...]
It has certainly been much calmer in October so far, especially compared with the deep deviations following the FOMC’s lack of activity. Stocks have rallied since October 1 along with many commodities, especially crude. Currencies have been almost mellow, with the ruble following oil prices upward, the real departing (for now) from its devastation and even those like the Indian [...]
The Census Bureau updated US trade activity for August, with export activity dropping almost 11% year-over-year. The global economy is clearly falling apart, no matter how much economists wish to see the dollar (exchange rate fluctuations) where the “dollar” (wholesale finance pulling back leading to economic disarray) already is. Export activity is only a little short of the trough of [...]
On September 28, Mark Haefele, Global CIO at UBS Wealth Management, wrote at CNBC.com there was much more to the central banking offerings than currently employed. The implication, obviously, was a reassuring call to not heed any darkening outlook. Blaming that upon “overanalyzed data”, Mr. Haefele insisted that investors were becoming far too pessimistic given the potential monetarism yet untapped. [...]
A shorter version of my prior post would have exclusively directed to Bernanke’s oped in yesterday's Wall Street Journal; specifically one passage. If you haven’t heard, the former Fed chair has written a memoir that glorifies his courage and intellectual fortitude in overcoming a historical barrage of criticism (his perspective). Clearly, he feels that was unearned though by count and construction [...]
The superficial transcendence of stocks notwithstanding, there continues a deeper and more devious trend in financial markets. As noted earlier today, while stock rationalizations were stoked by the inconsistent logic of “lower for longer”, other markets, the “dollar” in particular, are being thoroughly infected by great doubt. In some open episodes, that doubt has turned to fear, but the permeation [...]
Friday’s payroll malfunction makes a perfect backdrop for the latest Marxism revival. It has been a constant feature of this “recovery”, perfectly reflecting the labor realities of this “cycle” where financialism would be savaged from either end of the traditional political scale. As the tea party reflected the more libertarian, capitalist tradition against concentrations in banking and central planning, Occupy [...]
Asset markets on Friday reversed course after fully digesting a payroll report that has been universally assailed. The thinking is, apparently, that the Fed will have no choice but to stay on the sidelines now. That view is certainly bolstered by the FOMC’s inaction already in September, so worsening economic fortunes in the US apparently removes any flexibility anytime soon. [...]
This past week, the S&P 500 Cap-Weighted Index ((IVV)) tested and then held support at the 1867 level (at least temporarily) after its crushing meltdown from the 2130 level. If the index manages to hold here, we may test resistance at the 50-week moving average, which was once strong support. If it doesn’t hold the lows, we are looking at [...]
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