Holding REITs in Today’s Environment (VIDEO)
Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun explains why Alhambra has REITs in its portfolios, even in this high-interest rate environment.
Macro: Treasury refunding — We don’t need as much as we thought — yields drop
In August the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) told the market they were raising the net new money issuance recommendation for Q32023 from the initial guess of $733B to over $1T. They also announced a recommendation of $852B of net new money for Q42023. That spooked the bond market and 10-year yields jumped from 4% at the beginning of August [...]
Macro: GDPNow — a market mover
The most likely candidate for what moved markets today is the GDPNow update. The forecast for growth in Q4 dropped from an initial forecast of 2.3% to 1.2%. Of note, this is also a much slower growth than we saw in Q3. The bond market certainly reacted as yields continued to drop. The stock market appears to be reacting to [...]
Macro: Employment ADP and Jolts both good reports
A slight zig in the right direction versus September for both reports. ADP reported an addition of 113,000 jobs in October up from 89,000 in September. Even better, this was a steady increase throughout the month and not an isolated week. For the Jolts report, this number is a month stale. But it's a good one to look at because [...]
Don’t Miss These Year-End Financial Moves to Make Right Now
It seems like we just rang in the new year and here we are almost at the end of 2023. My dad told me the older I got, the faster things would go, and he wasn’t wrong. So, with the time left before the end of the year, there are some financial matters you need to attend to before you [...]
Weekly Market Pulse: Follow Buffett’s Rule
A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. - Warren Buffett, October 16, 2008, Buy American. I Am. , New York Times That was a month after the bankruptcy filing of Lehman Brothers, in the teeth of the Great Financial Crisis. At the beginning of the article he admits that [...]
Macro: Inflation — High frequencies and crude keep Powell up at night
If we look at inflation on a year over year basis, the data series is smooth and it is coming down. The rate of decent has slowed, but that's ok, the world doesn't work in perfectly smooth arcs and waves. The month over month annualized rate is a shorter term (very volatile) rate. As such, it will lead when there [...]
Macro: Consumer Sentiment — K-shaped
Here's a good visual of the K-shaped recovery from the pandemic. This is top the 1/3 in income versus the bottom 1/3 (terciles). The K would likely get even more distinct if we looked at quartiles, quintiles and deciles. Disclaimer: This information is presented for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, or the [...]
Macro: Auto Sales — it’s all about inventory replenishment
Sales firmed to an annual rate 16.23 million units in September after dropping below 16 million in August. This is about 7% higher than the historic average. Buyers delayed purchases because of price spikes and lack of inventory. The more interesting and important data are the production and inventory numbers. Production continues to rise as companies try to re-build inventory. [...]
Macro: GDP Q3
GDP came in hotter than expected. Sequentially, Real GDP grew 4.9%. To say it another way, the annualized growth rate of the quarter over quarter change in GDP, or (Q32023/Q22023)^4. The reason to look at it on a QoQ annualized basis is that you would see a problem in the economy sooner than the YoY numbers. The yoy annual rate [...]
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