Written Tuesday Oct 27 Even though oil production inside the United States has declined over the summer, it’s as if oil supply is all that continues to matter. With oil prices down significantly today, as well as since mid-October, the incessant appeal of oil supply blooms yet further even though there is so much more than that to take into [...]
Written Tuesday Oct 27 Anyone looking to buck the “dollar’s” direction in September has been sorely disappointed by almost every single data point so far. The latest is durable goods which was even more ugly across-the-board than August – and that includes the rather stark downward revisions for last month. Year-over-year, new orders (ex transportation) fell almost 6% after declining [...]
Written Monday Oct 26 If China and Europe provided any boost to mainline sentiment last week, everyone looks to Japan this week for perhaps disappointment, though there isn’t any good reason why. Perhaps as a fitting description of this current situation, one that I think appears more inevitable by the day and the week, the Bank of Japan apparently sits [...]
If central banks are now almost exclusively on the defensive, we have no shortage of anecdotes and data to explain it. For a good long while economists and commentary managed to keep the US safely “decoupled” from the “overseas” maelstrom, but the deluge locally has become far too much to ignore. This is far, far deeper than just some indistinct [...]
With the ECB openly admitting worries about its own QE trying to justify more of it and then China on Friday adding its own mix, the third consecutive “double shot” just since June 27, you can be forgiven for considering the idea that all this talk about a global economic downside is finally starting to be taken seriously. A little [...]
After trading within a range of 150 or so points during 2015, the S&P 500 Index (IVV) fell off a cliff in late summer, decisively breaking the 50-week moving average but holding support at the 1870 level. Within the last month it has rebounded decisively though, back up to resistance at the breakdown point at the 2080 level. New highs [...]
Stocks rallied strongly last week in response to comments by Mario Draghi that signaled a willingness, a determination in fact, to engage in more monetary stimulus. In fact, Draghi seemed to promise - once again - to do "whatever it takes", offering to consider "a whole menu of monetary policy instruments" in saying that the ECB was now "vigilant". One [...]
The US Central Bank has a dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices. Originally, this meant the Central Bank would help to smooth the business cycles that tend to occur in an economy. When an output gap emerged, they would lower the interest rate. This would not only lower the debt burden on the economy but would lower the [...]
Top News Headlines Paul Ryan running for Speaker of the House. Old tech blows out earnings estimates; GOOGL, AMZN and MSFT lead the way. Huge hurricane heads for Mexico. Hillary testifies, Republicans look stupid.....again. Mets sweep the Cubs; my friend Jim sighs. Economic News ECB hints at more QE; stocks soar. China cuts interest rates and reserve requirements; stocks soar. [...]
Economic Reports Scorecard – 10/12/15 to 10/24/15 The bifurcated nature of the economy is on display for all to see in the economic data from the last two weeks. Manufacturing continues to struggle as shown by the Fed surveys, the CFNAI, IP and inventories. Meanwhile, housing continues to improve in both the existing home and new home side of the [...]
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