Real Estate

Far Fewer Households Than People

By |2014-06-02T14:51:57-04:00June 2nd, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

There was more bad news for real estate recently beyond the consistent declines in housing stats. The one factor that housing bulls have been awaiting is household formation, though so far that one has remained a drag. And that was supposed to be the catalyst, in that eventually Americans had to begin moving out once more. After so many years [...]

Last Year’s Master Is This Year’s Victim

By |2014-05-29T10:11:07-04:00May 29th, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate|

I often stand in amazement at what passes for conventional wisdom, or more precisely what is being attempted as such. Only one year ago the tendency to view the housing market as the next great growth engine was ubiquitous all across economic commentary. It had “clearly” and “unarguably” turned from a maddening headwind to a comforting tailwind. More than a [...]

As Home Sales Depress, Now Inventories Again

By |2014-05-22T10:55:02-04:00May 22nd, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate|

The depressed level of existing home sales throughout 2014 so far continued into April despite all projections of pent up demand after a cold and wintry start. There was some growth in the month-to-month change of the seasonally adjusted figures, but even there the clear problem that has been evident since mortgage finance collapsed starkly remains. While it may be [...]

Systemic Poverty, Part 2

By |2014-05-21T15:28:37-04:00May 21st, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate|

In advance of another rash of housing statistics, one of the main components driving more optimistic expectations is household formation. After being severely depressed by the Great Recession and then the lack of real recovery, at some point population dynamics should begin to drive actual demand for owning shelter. Of course, it seems like a good part of the construction [...]

Why Policymakers May Want The GSE’s Back In The Game

By |2014-05-16T09:48:43-04:00May 16th, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate|

The latest home construction figures confirm both the durability of the downward trend and the theory that policymakers are getting nervous to the point of addressing it through additional measures. First, though, we need to sort out the noisy pieces. The data in multi-family construction is extremely volatile, so paying attention only to the month-to-month changes is highly misleading. The [...]

Santelli Is Right; GSE’s Gearing Up Again For Another Ride

By |2014-05-14T15:00:33-04:00May 14th, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate|

The latest noises out of both Fannie and Freddie are for increasing intrusion into housing, which is a sharp departure from where this was all heading (and where it should). The previous GSE administration (Ed DeMarco left in January, replaced by Mel Watts) had left the impression of winding down the troubled firms that have been in conservatorship since the [...]

Questions

By |2014-05-11T15:54:05-04:00May 11th, 2014|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

Investing is an inherently risky business with lots of uncertainties. At any given moment there are numerous questions the answers to which are not only unknown but unknowable. The future is not predictable and history can at best act as only a guide. Although rare, paradigm shifts do occur and one must always question whether it truly is different this [...]

Bubbles Doing What Bubbles Do

By |2014-04-23T10:24:17-04:00April 23rd, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate|

Economists blaming weather for the real estate/housing “pause” were cautiously optimistic for March ahead of this week’s housing data windfall. Economists expect that sales rose 2.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 450,000 last month, according to a survey by FactSet. New-home buying dipped 3.3 percent in February. Harsh winter storms that month curtailed purchases in the Northeast, [...]

The Unearned Age of Certainty

By |2014-04-22T16:20:31-04:00April 22nd, 2014|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

In continuing yesterday’s pointed critique of the current state of monetarism, there is another element to consider here. To reiterate, last year the yen devaluation was unquestionably seen as a catalyst toward rebirth of Japan Inc, and thus Japan economically (and maybe even demographically). This sentiment was as ubiquitous as it was accepted on faith: “Japan’s economy is going to [...]

Growing Detachment and Asymmetry Of Real Estate

By |2014-04-22T15:21:53-04:00April 22nd, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate|

I mentioned earlier today that pretty much the only sector of the economy (outside of government run lending for university waste) acting favorably toward interest rate “stimulus” was autos. Prior to the historic credit selloff and MBS rout in the middle of last year, you could add housing to the list. The latest figures for March 2014 from the National [...]

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