The risk budgets this month are again unchanged. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds remains at 40/60 versus the benchmark of 60/40. The changes in our indicators since last month's update have not been sufficient to warrant a change. Credit spreads did narrow significantly over the last month but the widening trend is still [...]
The risk budgets this month are unchanged. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds remains at 40/60 versus the benchmark of 60/40. While the BofA ML High Yield Master II OAS did widen significantly since the last update I’ve decided not to reduce the risk allocation more at this time. The stock market selloff and [...]
The risk budget this month is unchanged. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds remains at 40/60 versus the benchmark of 60/40. The BofA ML US High Yield Master II OAS did widen on the month but still remains below the 7.5% level I identified last month as a trigger point for a further reduction [...]
The risk budget this month is unchanged. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds remains at a defensive 40/60 versus the benchmark of 60/40. However, we are watching credit spreads very carefully because the BofA ML US High Yield Master II OAS is approaching 7.5%. That is a level that we think should trigger a [...]
The risk budget this month is unchanged. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds remains at a defensive 40/60 versus the benchmark of 60/40. Credit spreads narrowed on the month but the widening trend is intact and has recently resumed. Valuations are still excessive and 3rd quarter earnings have been generally downbeat. A divergence is [...]
The risk budget this month is unchanged. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds remains at a defensive 40/60 versus the benchmark of 60/40. HY credit spreads continued to widen on the month indicating continuing stress in that market. Spreads did not widen sufficiently to generate an additional sell signal. Valuations are still near recent [...]
The following table presents the probability of 4 possible paths for the economy and our macro research partners expected return for major asset classes in each scenario. The weighted average of all scenarios is presented in the last column. Click here to sign up for our free weekly e-newsletter. For information on Alhambra Investment Partners' money management services and [...]
Here is a table of recommendations for regional equity allocation from our research partner. Click here to sign up for our free weekly e-newsletter. For information on Alhambra Investment Partners' money management services and global portfolio approach, Douglas R. Terry, CFA is reachable at: dterry@4kb.d43.myftpupload.com This material has been distributed for informational purposes only. It is the opinion of the [...]
The risk budget this month is unchanged. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds remains at a defensive 40/60 versus the benchmark of 60/40. Credit spreads continued to widen over the last month but the rate of change is still orderly. The change this month was not sufficient to trigger an additional sell signal. Valuations [...]
I am lowering our risk budget this month based on several factors. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds moves to a defensive 40/60 versus the benchmark of 60/40 and last month's 50/50. Credit spreads have resumed widening as crude oil prices have resumed their downtrend. The downtrend in high yield credit prices may be [...]
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