Market & Economic Analysis

"Study the past if you would devine the future." - Confucius

A Year Later, The Fact Fedwire Is Still There Tells Us Why Markets Have Done What They’ve Done

The world seemed to have everything going for it, for once, everything coming up favorable for the first time seemingly in forever. There were vaccines, financial government interventions worldwide just recklessly chucking money at anyone with a pulse, an end to the pandemic even normalcy right in front of us. What could possibly have messed this up?It was around 11:15 [...]

By |2022-02-23T18:55:59-05:00February 23rd, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Are Central Bankers About To Spike The Ball At The 30-yard line (again)?

Nobody, and I mean nobody, does premature celebrations like central bankers. When it comes to their non-money monetary policies and the inflation they seek to create from them, time and again officials in every jurisdiction spike the ball at least 30 yards before they reach the endzone. Whenever one or another consumer price measure ticks up, or accelerates dramatically as [...]

By |2022-02-22T18:50:50-05:00February 22nd, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Weekly Market Pulse: Ukraine Isn’t The Problem

As I write this, the S&P 500 futures are down over 80 points, apparently in response to some rather harsh comments from Vladimir Putin concerning Ukraine. Russia recognized the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk, two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine that border Russia, and is apparently deploying troops in these regions. This is seen by the west as a precursor [...]

By |2022-02-22T08:38:51-05:00February 21st, 2022|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Markets, Stocks|

The Real Money Doesn’t *Spread* Inflation

It was the clash of all clashes, the textbook up against practice in a real world falling apart. Theory’s chance to save the day and prove itself, what should’ve been the legend’s finest hour. Time to put up, or... On the one side, there was the “money” we’re all told is easily created, and on the other what may have [...]

By |2022-02-21T18:38:16-05:00February 21st, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Money *All* Agrees: Taper Rejection Meets Policy-Error Error

Balance sheet capacity as an intangible (and deeply misunderstood) monetary property is the biggest motivating factor behind changes in or to the offshore, shadow ledger-money reserve system. The eurodollar. Since it is a distributed ledger shared amongst, and kept by, the big-bank global banking cabal, its members’ ability to expand their own individual balance sheets contributes to the overall increase [...]

By |2022-02-18T19:02:09-05:00February 18th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Somewhat Wild Bill(s)

Today, Treasury auctioned its usual weekly allowance of 4- and 8-week Treasury bills. For the former, this was the first conducted given a maturity which goes past the March 2022 FOMC meeting; the initial all-but-guaranteed rate hike. Last week’s 4-week bill expires right on the first day of that meeting, so no rate hike had been considered auctioning off that [...]

By |2022-02-17T19:58:56-05:00February 17th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

An October (‘inflation’) Revolution

Most Americans understandably have tunnel vision when it comes to the American CPI and what it might portend for their personal circumstances. Gasoline prices and those for anyone trying to buy a car or now rent some kind of shelter, the threat is immediate. From this palpable sense, the word “transitory” today might just seem offensive.Yet, it may prove itself [...]

By |2022-02-16T20:25:23-05:00February 16th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Americans Love Spending Online In Certain Januaries

When it gets cold outside and the pandemic throws another variant spread into the mix, Americans have proved they will come together…in virtual fashion to go shopping for fashions and more on Amazon. For the second straight post-Christmas winter, retail sales recorded by nonstore retailers ended up being far, far better than expected. According to the Census Bureau’s latest report [...]

By |2022-02-16T17:49:50-05:00February 16th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Euro$ Curve Chromodynamics

Following up on recent changes to the eurodollar futures curve, the inversion came back (less upside down) by only a couple basis points in trading today, with most of the curve unchanged. There was only modest selling in futures toward the back end, the curve lifting a touch off yesterday’s recent low point. Far more important than that, the inversion [...]

By |2022-02-15T20:04:03-05:00February 15th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|
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