On January 15, the Swiss National Bank suddenly and without warning removed the franc’s peg to the euro. Months later, there is still much confusion as to why they acted, including some of the usual doctrinaire assessments that take no account of wholesale “dollar” reality. In other words, the SNB was explicit on January 15 though nobody apparently listened. The [...]
Japanese household spending increased 5.5% in nominal terms in May; 4.8% in real spending growth. That was the first monthly increase since November and since it was a positive number, and not as typically close to zero, it is being hailed as another great sign of QQE success. With Q1 GDP revised up to nearly 5%, economists are back to [...]
We all have our own conceptions about money, as in many respects it is and should be deeply personal. Most people pay it little mind as all that matters is if our cars can be filled with gasoline and the local grocery store exchanges food for some ready and convenient method of payment. That used to be the primary focus [...]
The European mess is coming more into view, and in almost every case that is a negative outcome. There really isn’t much going right in Europe right now, belying everything that was said, done or proclaimed only a year ago. Italian unemployment unexpectedly rose to a record high that’s more than double the German rate, keeping alive concerns about the [...]
There would be a lot more use for the Treasury Dept’s TIC flows and holdings data if it was released closer to real time, but even with that evident staleness about it I think there is a lot of use in how it frames what we see in the dollar and currencies (thus spilling over into “markets” everywhere). The dominant [...]
You have to wonder, given the circumstances today, if there is such a thing as a perpetual Minsky phase. The Minsky moment was first theorized as a point in the “cycle” in which borrowers, lustily seeking geometric leverage progression, begin to experience trouble simply maintaining debt. From there bidders are increasingly more difficult to find, making price momentum suspect, and [...]
I have recently been accused of being a paid up member of the gloom and doom club. Well, actually accused might be too strong; informed is probably more accurate. I don't spend a lot of time thinking about how these weekly missives might be perceived but based on recent feedback the perception out there seems to be that I've turned [...]
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