Last week, industrial production ticked higher but only somewhat while this week the Empire Fed manufacturing survey has caused extensive jitters to extend at least another week. Given those somewhat contrasting views on American industry they can be reconciled by simple timing matched against what the “dollar” has been doing across that period. Oil prices, that vital connection between “dollar” [...]
Petroleum sales at the wholesale level grew to a year-to-date high in June. According to the Commerce Dept.’s latest estimates, crude oil sales jumped to $48.6 billion, seasonally-adjusted, from a low in January of just $41.9 billion. Though that seems like good news for a wholesale sector under tremendous inventory pressure, it means that absent that oil price effect wholesale [...]
Everything in dollar-denomination yesterday was lifted by the usual M&A debasement and quite sour data from China. The latter was taken as if there would be renewed “stimulus” in the near term. The “dollar” took a break from its recent destructive nature, as commodities rebounded as did currency proxies and even gold. Stocks in the US and elsewhere jumped and [...]
Top News Headlines Dow falls seven straight days; longest losing streak in four years Bonds up for third week in a row; diversification does work Apple stock in correction territory Republicans hold first debate; Fiorina, Kasich biggest surprises Media stocks clobbered; Disney leads to the downside on ESPN woes Economic News Incomes up modestly, spending still weak ISM Manufacturing index [...]
By most accounts, crude oil prices are still nearing their March lows. That would suggest that this version of “dollar” turmoil might be yet working its way toward levels of disorder previously seen in that last episode. That is misleading, as even crude prices are appreciably more stressed now than they were in March. From that, it follows that other [...]
Repo rates absolutely surged at month-end, LIBOR jumped a few more basis points and the eurodollar curve is bid almost everywhere in large chunks. Commodities continue to get smashed, especially crude oil, and currencies are devaluing in almost equally large portions. Even the treasury market is somewhat sporting the tell-tale collateral calls. In short, the “dollar” problems continue into this [...]
The “dollar” problems continued this morning as several proxies continued toward new lows. Copper fell to as low as $2.342 (July contract still) while crude is down close to $47 in the front months. The back end of the WTI curve, perhaps more importantly with respect to growth and fundamentals tied to the “dollar”, fell to new lows. The Brazilian [...]
If there is something different about the “dollar” in July it is that it has been in widespread pressure on funding. From early May to the beginning of July, the “dollar” was more hit and miss with only regional or limited disruption. Crude prices, for example, rising since the March FOMC, stopped but then traded sideways rather than appreciably lower. [...]
With all the problems right now beyond Greece and China, from Canada’s “puzzling” recession to Brazil’s unfolding disaster, and even the still-“shocking” US economic slump, it is interesting that gold garnered the most attention in early Monday trading. The fact that gold prices were slammed in Asian trading was certainly significant, but that really isn’t why gold is being highlighted [...]
With a lull in Greek information and general craziness, as well as China essentially shutting down its stock exchange (no longer much as far as exchange) “dollar” pressure has abated. That is obvious in the treasury market which has seen a retracement in yields without collateral calls, but also somewhat in the related commodities. Copper prices are back up to [...]
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