Working with my colleague Joe Calhoun (mostly him), we’ve come up with what we think is a list of questions that quite naturally arise from this week’s discussions of bank reserves, some specific and technical, the monetary system, some theoretical, some practical, and the (much) wider economic consequences which follow from those. 1. When the bank buys a Treasury note/bond/bill [...]
This one will also be simple but doesn't need to be lengthy. What is a flat Phillips Curve? It’s not just something Richard Clarida dreamed up recently. The idea has been talked about more and more as the inflation “puzzle” showed up disproving the LABOR SHORTAGE!!!! - meaning full employment and recovery narrative – over the past few years. Here’s [...]
After thinking about it all day, I’m still not quite sure this isn’t a joke; a high-brow commitment of utterly brilliant performance art, the kind of Four-D masterpiece of hilarious deception that Andy Kaufman would’ve gone nuts over. I mean, it has to be, right?I’m talking, of course, about Jackson Hole and Jay Powell’s reportedly genius masterstroke. There’s a lot [...]
Tomorrow, the Treasury Department is going to announce the results of its latest bond auction. A truly massive one, $47 billion are being offered of CAH4’s notes dated August 31, 2020, maturing out in August 31, 2027. In other words, the belly of the belly, the 7s.We’ve already seen them drop for two note auctions this week, both equally sizable. [...]
Does anyone remember the petroyuan? It doesn’t appear so, though not because the thing disappeared rather due to the fact that it didn’t. It was a really big deal for a time, pretty much all of 2018. What it was supposed to have represented was the dollar’s death knell. Guaranteed, one hundred, no, one thousand percent dead. This was widely [...]
While the world is taking the smallest of baby steps in the right direction, mostly it’s been related to the part of the eurodollar system that everyone can see. Not bank reserves and the Fed’s “money printing”, though you can see them and we’re told to obsess about them those things don’t matter. I mean instead the dollar’s exchange value; [...]
The key word in the whole thing is “bias.” For a very long time, people working in and around the finance industry have sought to gain tremendous advantages. No explanation for the motive is required. Charts, waves, technical (sounding) analysis and so on. To many dispassionate observers there was always this sort of improper religious fervor to it rather than [...]
What happens when we are stunned and dazed? We filter out the noise to focus on the bare basics by getting back to our instincts, acting reflexively based upon our deeply held beliefs and especially training. When faced with a crisis and there’s no time to really think, shorthand will have to suffice. That’s what was so odd about 1930, [...]
It’s understandable to an extent. Central banks are omnipotent, central bankers therefore the nearest human equivalent of gods. That’s what we’re all taught, so if something happens somewhere to some market then we’re left to believe it was because one of the gods wanted it that way.Taking this globally, the Fed made a bunch of money in the aftermath of [...]
Not this again. When you really have run out of ideas, just set something aside for a time and then when it comes time again simply dust it off and pretend it is new and inspired. You can make it sound great, so long as no one remembers and realizes just how tired and ridiculous it actually is.It’s almost as [...]
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