Home resales rebounded in September according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR) from an admittedly lackluster summer. Outside of that narrow view of just the past three months, resales, however, really haven’t grown at all going back to last summer. Year-over-year, sales were down 1.8% in July, up just 0.2% in August, and only 0.6% in September. Like Ford’s [...]
Housing starts unexpectedly fell sharply, for once justifying the use of the description without quotation marks. The decline was concentrated in the multi-family segment. Though apartment construction statistics are highly volatile, this is far beyond the usual wide variation. The seasonally-adjusted annual rate had been above 400k each of the prior three months, so to suddenly tank to just 250k [...]
In economics, there is a great deal of thought and debate surrounding first and second order effects. In short, a first order effect is something that is directly caused by some change, while a second order effect is caused by the first order effect. In many instances it is the second order effects that countermand any of the first, rendering [...]
For the fifteenth consecutive month dating back to November 2014, the US CPI remained less than 1.5%. While this was supposed to be the year where “transitory” effects of oil prices as well as “other” factors dissipated, only in January has the full CPI been above 1.1%. Much like the PCE Deflator, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, there is no [...]
The contradictory nature of the real estate market continues to be exhibited in resales as well as new construction. Though sales of new homes jumped, resales fell. Since last June, the level of contracts for the sale of existing homes has been stuck around 5.4 million SAAR. That was about the same rate of activity as reached at the height [...]
In yet another data point that identifies depression rather than a Great Recession, the Wall Street Journal reported last week what most people outside the economics profession had realized a long time ago. Janet Yellen likes to say that the housing market is recovering, highlighting the economic sector as one of the few bright spots left. The FOMC regularly and [...]
Economic Reports Scorecard The economic data the last two weeks was deja vu all over again. The US economy has been growing at roughly 2% the last three years and I see no reason - yet - to expect that is going to change any time soon in either direction. Certainly there hasn't been anything in the data to support [...]
The June 2016 FOMC statement included an admission that the labor market might not have been quite as unassailable as had been thought dating back to 2014. That was likely the reason for the assumed change in stance, as even KC Fed President Esther George was unable to bring herself (LINK HERE) to vote against sticking with the 25 – [...]
Economists will not remove themselves from seeing the economy as it “should be” rather than take it for what it is (and what that actually means). They have latched their narrative to the idea that it is you who has the perception problem no matter how isolated the “recovery” becomes. There never was much indication for a decent recovery all [...]
There is undoubtedly serious stratification in the housing market, as higher end homes have no trouble selling at greater and greater price points. That, in turn, has left those owing homes in the tiers below struggling, supposedly, to do what Americans of past generations have done – move up to bigger and better. Because these middle level home owners are [...]
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