inflation

Incredibly Simple economics

By |2018-09-28T16:49:40-04:00September 28th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There are more than 300 PhD Economists working on staff for the Federal Reserve. The central bank tells us that they “represent an exceptionally diverse range of interests and specific areas of expertise.” Perhaps, but they are all PhD Economists, aren’t they? These highly educated people cover a broad range of topics, for sure, and all from the same starting [...]

The Wizard of Draghi

By |2018-09-28T12:32:51-04:00September 28th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Central bankers must be using some other dictionary than the one available to all the rest of the world. Janet Yellen, for example, abused the word “transitory” for so long it became unrelatable to the concept of time; which was its original meaning. It evolved into an excuse for explaining how forecasts weren’t wrong, they just applied always to the [...]

Not Stealth Taper, Scared Taper

By |2018-09-21T15:49:14-04:00September 21st, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

Just like Jay Powell is surely hoping for some help from Mother Nature, the central bankers at the BoJ have to be wishing for more on their side of the Pacific. The US Federal Reserve will be looking for a repeat of last year’s Harvey and Irma effects out of Florence. It looks like they’ll need them. Japanese officials have [...]

ECB (Data) Independence

By |2018-09-13T19:01:19-04:00September 13th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Mario Draghi doesn’t have a whole lot going for him, but he is at least consistent - at times (yes, inconsistent consistency). Bloomberg helpfully reported yesterday how the ECB’s staff committee that produces the econometric projections has recommended the central bank’s Governing Council change the official outlook. Since last year, risks have been “balanced” in their collective opinion. Given what’s happened [...]

Downslope CPI

By |2018-09-13T16:41:32-04:00September 13th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Cushing, OK, delivered what it could for the CPI. The contribution to the inflation rate from oil prices was again substantial in August 2018. The energy component of the index gained 10.3% year-over-year, compared to 11.9% in July. It was the fourth straight month of double digit gains. Yet, the CPI headline retreated a little further than expected. After reaching [...]

Prefiguring The Expected Expectations Fail

By |2018-09-10T18:24:12-04:00September 10th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

The Boston Fed held its 62nd Annual Economic Conference over the weekend. Not quite as well-known as the KC Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium, this Eastern branch’s meeting still attracts many big-name speakers. The “right” speakers, that is, meaning academic and mainstream bank Economists, supranational think tank thinkers, as well as current and former central bankers. The echo chamber is just [...]

ECB At A (Familiar) Crossroads

By |2018-08-31T17:05:54-04:00August 31st, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

If Brazilian central bankers are the standard for illicit shamelessness, their European counterparts are at least on the same spectrum. At the end of April, the European Central Bank’s President Mario Draghi took his shot at purposeful mischaracterization. Speaking to the press after the ECB’s Governing Council meeting had concluded, Draghi had been forced to concede there had been at [...]

The Anticipation For The 2011 Inflation Case

By |2018-08-30T18:19:07-04:00August 30th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The PCE Deflator rose 2.31% year-over-year in July 2018, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. That makes five in a row for Jay Powell to try to make his case. Prior to March, the central bank had missed its target for the PCE Deflator in 68 out of 70 months using the 2012 dollar reference. Has something changed? Yes [...]

What’s On Peoples’ Minds? Not Inflation

By |2018-08-29T15:54:49-04:00August 29th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There are a few pretty good indications that inflation hysteria is long dead. Since this was one of the more extreme forms, it’s also relevant in parsing any shift from reflation back to deflation. There are any number of markets suggesting as much already. Still, this one really has to sting for sunny, confident Jerome Powell. From the St. Louis [...]

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