It’s amazing to see how far standards have shrunk given this cycle. Because monetary policy has been so active in the past five years, including ZIRP and numerous QE’s, there is a mindset settling into the mainstream commentary that this is the best that can be achieved. It’s not even a “new normal”, it’s something far more sinister in that [...]
To spare any suspense, the answer is the New York Branch of the Federal Reserve. There has been a clear and obvious shift in the target for the POMO end of QE purchasing. This happened the week of November 20; that same date that I highlighted yesterday as important systemically. This adds to that picture. Before getting too far ahead, [...]
While the applications of monetary policy are clearly missing their mark on "Main Street", there is the other side of the equation where the leading edge of psychology is firmly planted. Extreme levels of pretty much everything, from stock buybacks and investor sentiment to margin debt and leverage, have caught the attention of policymakers for good reason. Click here to sign [...]
It’s that day of the month when the apex of silly attention gets focused on the BLS. Just in time to directly contradict the FOMC’s “careful” rationale for cutting back on the fuel for small caps and the flood of cov-lite, the December jobs report was wintry. Despite the paltry advance in the Establishment Survey, there has been a rush [...]
I suppose the key difference this January is that taper is a reality and not just some theoretical jawboning. But he we are again in January discussing FOMC ruminations about what might appear “slightly” concerning about asset prices and levels. As Janet Yellen takes over to focus the Fed’s considerable (in its models’ estimations) might in trying to “alleviate all [...]
As gold established price behavior based on forward rate movements in 2013, it is clear that the ebb of each successive wave of collateral selling was met with less intensity on the price upswing. There are a number of reasons for that, including the price volatility on the downside and central banks conspiring to convince markets that “tail risks” are [...]
Well, 2013 is in the books and it was a stellar year for anyone who had the moxy to ignore all the rules we've been taught about investing. Diversification? Didn't need it last year. All you had to do was buy US stocks, the more speculative the better, and let it ride. Bonds to reduce risk? Nope, that didn't work [...]
Although there is correlation and relation between the consumer environment and business spending, there are times when the two diverge. Typically, this might occur at the outset of actual recovery where businesses invest productively first, which then leads to increases in overall employment, wages and incomes; thus bringing consumer spending up after some lag. With consumer spending heading lower, consistent [...]
As is usually the case, ShopperTrak was cautiously optimistic about holiday retail sales for 2012. In September 2012, the firm estimated total spending growth to be about 3.3% above 2011, with a more modest 2.8% increase Y/Y in foot traffic. By January 2013, it appeared as if total retail sales only grew at a 2.5% rate. That was down from [...]
After the violent reaction to the idea of tapering QE this summer, the FOMC members went on a mission to convince skeptical dollar markets that tapering was not tightening. Where the FOMC sees an adjustment to the toolkit, or the tactical approach, the overall strategy of loose monetary “stimulation” is, in their estimation, unassailable. Obviously, the funding markets disagreed; vehemently. [...]
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