There’s important potential for the economy to strengthen significantly if there’s a greater level of security and confidence about where we’re going. A plan for resolving the nation’s longer-term budgetary issues without harming the recovery could help make the new year a very good one for the American economy. Ben Bernanke in a speech last week to the Economic Club [...]
John Templeton, one of the greatest investors of all time, said that investors should buy at the point of maximum pessimism. Nothing illustrates the adage of something being easy to say and hard to do more than that statement. It is of course at the point of maximum pessimism that our natural psychological barrier to executing that strategy is greatest. [...]
"More than 17 percent of all FHA loans were delinquent in September, according to data on the agency’s website." I believe that number was 9% last quarter. Of course not all delinquencies turn into bad loans, or full-on NPL's, but both the trend and absolute level should be alarming. The major problem, however, seems to be the mortgage guarantee business [...]
Total European roundup from this morning – marginally less bad in the PIIGS, but deterioration into contraction in Germany and especially France. SPAIN, Services PMI 41.2, up from 40.2 “This Further sharp reductions in activity and new orders were recorded in the Spanish service sector during October as the economic crisis in the country persisted. Falling demand led companies to [...]
What a ridiculous question, right? Of course it matters say the Romney supporters. Getting someone in the White House who understands business will make all the difference. Of course it matters say the Obama supporters. Making the rich pay their fair share will mean a more equal economy and more growth. Of course it matters say the Romney supporters. Lower [...]
As the Northeast prepares for Hurricane Sandy, markets are preparing for their own perfect storm. The first feeder bands are coming ashore now and whether we feel the full brunt depends to a large degree on how the political class responds. The Fed is already in full FEMA mode with results similar to those witnessed after another Hurricane, Katrina. Ben [...]
Mandates are tricky enough when it comes to interpretation of how to best and most efficiently achieve them. This is especially true when the act of fostering a mandate or moving a system toward the desired outcome is disruptive. The evaluation process of the mandate and the policies meant to push toward it inevitably descends into some kind of cost/benefit [...]
Thinking Things Over September 16, 2012 Volume II, Number 31: Bernanke Casts a Vote for Obama John L. Chapman, Ph.D. Washington, D.C. “Reason…teaches all Mankind, who would but consult it, that being all equal and independent, no one ought to harm another in his Life, Health, Liberty, or Possessions. [And what best promotes this?] …[A] standing Rule to live by, common to [...]
A trend or perhaps out-performance can sometimes be deceiving. You've heard me say it before, you must be wary of time horizon. Know what you are analyzing and then look from a different perspective, discern the necessary details. We tend to like visual analysis and it will often paint a very vivid picture. Take, for instance the performance of a [...]
Mark Thoma comes unglued about Paul Ryan's economic policy views: Romney and Ryan don't approve of fiscal policy stimulus (unless it's tax cuts for the wealthy), and Ryan would take away the ability of the Fed to respond to unemployment as well. Basically, they are telling us that if a recession hits and they have their way, nothing will be [...]
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