recession

Demand Down, Supply Down, Ugly Up

By |2022-06-28T18:37:34-04:00June 28th, 2022|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Well, that was a mess. The Richmond Fed’s Manufacturing Survey was at first released before being taken back. Initially reported as a plunge in the headline number, it was quickly scrapped once the statisticians remembered they had just discontinued their average workweek component – but had kept a zero in its place when tallying the overall PMI.With it, the PMI [...]

Nasty Number Five, Not Hawk Hiking CBs

By |2022-06-24T19:49:31-04:00June 24th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s not recession fears, those are in the past. For much if not most (vast majority) of mainstream pundits and newsmedia alike, unlike regular folks this is all news to them (the irony, huh?) Economists and central bankers everywhere had said last year was a boom, a true inflationary inferno raging worldwide. For once, CPIs (or European HICPs) seemed to [...]

Sorry Chairman Powell, Even FRBNY Now Has To Forecast Serious and Seriously Rising Recession Risk

By |2022-06-19T02:04:26-04:00June 19th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

At his last press conference, Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell made a bunch of unsubstantiated claims, none of which were called out or even questioned by the assembled reporters. These rituals are designed to project authority not conduct inquiry, and this one was perhaps the best representation of that intent.Powell’s job is to put the current predicament in the best [...]

China Opens Up And Not Much Else

By |2022-06-15T20:13:50-04:00June 15th, 2022|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Neither Jay Powell nor Janet Yellen see recession risk. They’re coverage, though, ends at the US boundary, each thoroughly trained on the wrong idea the US economy is an island. While it isn’t and it has its own very visible recession problems right now, properly speaking globally there’s no bigger recession risk-ignition than over on the other side of the [...]

Curve Inversion 101: US CPI Politics Up Front, China PPI Down(ing) The Back

By |2022-06-13T18:54:55-04:00June 13th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

While the world fixated on the US CPI, it was other “inflation” data from across the Pacific that is telling the real economic story. Having conflated the former with a red-hot economy, the fact American consumer prices aren’t tied to the actual economic situation has been lost in the shuffle of the FOMC’s hawkishness, with markets obliged to price wrong-way [...]

Prices As Curative Punishment

By |2022-06-10T18:14:54-04:00June 10th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It wasn’t exactly a secret, though the raw data doesn’t ever tell you why something might’ve changed in it. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, confirmed by industry sources, US new car sales absolutely tanked in May 2022. At a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 12.7 million, it was a quarter fewer than sales put down in May 2021 and [...]

Demand Wasn’t Supposed To Be The Problem

By |2022-06-06T18:05:35-04:00June 6th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

They called it an atmospheric river, though I’m not really sure who “they” was nor whether the term is scientific or just media hype. Either way, in early November the Pacific Northwest of the US along with Western Canada was inundated by a, well, river of rainfall. Mudslides, torrential downpours, just a muddy mess across the entire region. At one [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Risk, Uncertainty & Opportunity

By |2022-06-06T09:24:03-04:00June 6th, 2022|Alhambra Portfolios, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Stocks|

Dimon says brace for U.S. economic 'hurricane' due to inflation "It's a hurricane," Dimon told a banking conference, adding that the current situation is unprecedented. "Right now, it's kind of sunny, things are doing fine. Everyone thinks the Fed can handle this. That hurricane is right out there down the road coming our way. We just don't know if it's [...]

Can’t Blame COVID For This One

By |2022-06-01T20:16:42-04:00June 1st, 2022|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Late in March 2021, then-German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced a reverse. Several weeks before that time, Merkel’s federal government had reached an agreement with the various states to begin opening the country back up, easing more modest restrictions to move daily life closer to normal. But with case counts sharply rising once more, the whole thing was going to get [...]

President Phillips Emerges To Reassure On Growing Slowdown

By |2022-06-01T19:30:41-04:00June 1st, 2022|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Just the other day, President Biden took to the pages of the Wall Street Journal to reassure Americans the government is doing something about the greatest economic challenge they face. Biden says this is inflation when that’s neither the actual affliction nor our greatest threat. On the contrary, recession probabilities have sharply risen as the real economy slows down given [...]

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